Kings County Was For HSR Before They Were Against It

Aug 8th, 2011 | Posted by

As has been the case with the California HSR project for about a year now, all the action is in the Central Valley. That’s where the US Department of Transportation insisted the first HSR funds be spent on new construction, and that makes sense – the Central Valley is key to connecting SF and LA, since the project isn’t about better commuter rail, and after all the Valley has the state’s worst unemployment rates.

Today another step toward construction of that system was taken as the California High Speed Rail Authority announced that it had received $86.4 million in stimulus funds from the USDOT toward Central Valley construction:

The funds secured in the agreement were a portion of the May 2011 award, which was the re-allocation of funding from Florida. This amends a previous agreement signed December 2010.

The Authority applied for the funding in April and offered a 20 percent state match – therefore this agreement represents $108 million that can be applied to next year’s initial infrastructure construction in the Central Valley, the backbone of the statewide system.

When state matching funds are counted along with federal funds that have been awarded, the California HSR project has received $6.3 billion in funding. The first funds will start being spent next year on the Central Valley segment, with land acquisition as the first step. The Authority is looking to hire consultants to help with this process:

Within the next week or so, the California High-Speed Rail Authority will begin looking for companies to negotiate with property owners and seal the deals on rights of way for the first 120 miles or so of tracks in the Central Valley. It’s a contract that could be worth up to $40 million.

What sort of reception will they find? As is often the case, the reception will be mixed. Most farmers along the route will sell without a fuss, just as they do when a private developer comes along offering money to turn their land into subdivisions. And those developers don’t have the power of eminent domain. Farmers can’t say no to the state, they can only say no to an offered price. If they continue to refuse, they can take the state to court for a judge to settle the matter. But the 5th Amendment of the United States constitution and 200 years of Supreme Court precedent is absolutely clear that these farmers will have to sell if the state uses the power of eminent domain.

As we’ve pointed out before, this is nothing new for the Valley. In the 1960s Interstate 5 was built largely on an entirely new alignment, and agriculture didn’t vanish as a result. If a Highway 99 corridor were chosen for the HSR route, there would be farmers there who would be affected and would likely have to sell land as well.

Still, there are farmers who are planning to resist:

“It’s going to be the toughest possible reception we can give them,” said Helen Vierra Sullivan, whose family farms almonds north of Hanford. “My land is not for sale. … How can they take away my heritage, my livelihood, something my family has invested blood and sweat in for more than 80 years? It’s wrong on so many levels.”

Of course, nobody is telling her she has to lose her heritage and livelihood. It’s not as if she’d be the first person, farmer or urbanite, to lose their land to a transportation project. I won’t minimize the impact this would have, and it cannot be easy to have to sell. On the other hand, if this is the best route for the project, then the greater good of California does take precedence here.

Other anti-HSR activists are making their plans:

Farmer Frank Oliveira said more than 300 individual parcels in the county would be affected by the high-speed tracks.

Oliveira and others along the line from Laton through Hanford and Corcoran want to either have the route moved elsewhere or see the rail project stopped altogether, despite pledges from the rail authority that they will be compensated for their property, crops, homes or businesses.

“People here don’t really want their money. People just want them to go away,” said Oliveira, who runs MELs Farms. The company has several farms in the path of the train line near Hanford.

Oliveira said he expects property owners will listen politely “to whoever shows up and knocks on our door” to negotiate for their land. “Obviously we’re not happy or receptive to this process,” he said. “But as far as not talking to these people, we’ll listen.”

“There are people who will and should try to ensure they are adequately compensated for what the state is trying to do to them,” he added. “That’s only fair and right.”

But Oliveira believes some owners will take their battle for property into court as eminent domain cases.

Activists like Oliveira have had increasing success in getting Kings County officials to fall back from their originally strong support of HSR. It’s an echo of Palo Alto, whose City Council voted unanimously to endorse Prop 1A, and 60% of whose voters approved the proposition. In both places, a small number of loud voices have been enough to convince skittish politicians to cave on their HSR support.

Kings County Supervisors recently wrote to Joseph Szabo, head of the Federal Railroad Administration, to slam the HSR project and call on the FRA to delay approval of the EIR:

Citing federal law, the letter argues that the authority’s decision to build its first segment through Kings County farmland next year was based on a “pre-determined outcome” rather than through cooperation with local government agencies.

“Clearly, the refusal to coordinate and comply with the law has become the policy of the Authority, not the exception,” the letter states.

The letter, along with binders full of supporting documents, was scheduled to go by overnight service to Szabo and several others, including Authority Chairman Thomas Umberg, Assemblyman David Valadao, Rep. Jim Costa and the mayors of Hanford, Lemoore, Corcoran, Avenal, Visalia and Tulare.

“There’s been a huge effort to put the letter together,” said Colleen Carlson, Kings County counsel. “[People] are really concerned about what it will do to the community and the economy. They really want people to pay attention to the problem and look at other possibilities that may resolve that problem.”

Carlson’s comments are particularly interesting given that it completely ignores the fact that the reason there’s an HSR station in Hanford is because local governments organized and said they really, really wanted it. From a March 2009 Fresno Bee article (dead link, but I quoted it at the time):

“In 30 years, there’s going to be a million people in Tulare and Kings counties, southern Fresno County and northern Kern,” said Visalia Mayor Jesus Gamboa. “I don’t want the train to zoom by and we just look at it.”…

This week, the Visalia City Council got a word of encouragement from Bob Schaevitz, project manager for the Fresno-Palmdale stretch of the 800-mile rail line.

“This station makes a lot of sense,” Schaevitz said. “I’ve heard nothing negative about the station.”

But the community should make its voice heard before the environmental impact report is written, he said.

There’s precedent in speaking up. Two years ago, a coalition of city managers and elected officials from Visalia, Tulare, Corcoran, Kingsburg, Selma and Fowler went to the authority and asked for a station.

The group succeeded in getting the authority to change its route maps to include one potential station between Hanford and Visalia, and four more sites around Tulare and Goshen.

Now the goal is to get one of the sites changed from “potential” to “designated,” Gamboa said.

In other words, they were for HSR before they were against it.

We know there are a lot of HSR supporters in Kings County, including farmers. And they support it because they know that HSR is essential to bringing jobs and economic growth to Kings County. Agriculture will still be an important part of the county’s life, but it can be supplemented with other things without eating up farmland by locating new growth near the Hanford HSR station.

It’s a shame, then, that their county elected officials are so easily cowed by a small group of vocal opponents. One reason we are facing a political crisis in this country is because elected officials are so skittish that a small, persistent group of hecklers are able to get them to shrink back from supporting transformative projects that will help solve the problems we face. That lack of leadership doesn’t instill confidence in the public, and instead increases distrust of government.

Kings County knows that transportation projects can be built through it without causing disruption or harm, and that in fact they can cause a big economic boost. It would be a shame if they continued to oppose a better future for their county out of fear of offending a few vocal opponents in 2011.

  1. morris brown
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 05:24
    #1

    The title of Robert’s 1500 words here
    Kings County Was For HSR Before They Were Against It

    has me confused.

    Robert is always throwing up the 2008 election results but somehow he seems to have missed this one.

    Kings County voted 47.5 yes 52.5 no on Prop 1A in the Nov 2008 election.

    The title of this thread should indeed be:

    Kings County Was Against HSR in the 2008 election

    BTW, Merced Co., home of the “Author” of Prop 1A, Galgiani voted 45.5 yes and 54.2 no

    Peter Reply:

    I think here the point is that the county government was for HSR, not the general, conservative population, which obviously doesn’t want anything to ever change.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Can we please not overinterpret 52.5-47.5 results?

    Derek Reply:

    “Kings County voted 47.5 yes 52.5 no on Prop 1A in the Nov 2008 election.”

    That doesn’t count the undecideds. It’s possible that less than 50% of people who turned in a ballot voted no.

    Peter Reply:

    http://www.countyofkings.com/acr/elections/results/Archive%20Results/2008_11_14/Election%20Result.htm

    Vote count: 35,775 turnout

    “Yes” on Prop 1A: 16,182
    “No” on Prop 1A: 17,906

    50.005% of all votes cast were against Prop 1A.

    That’s a good indication that there was, at the time at least, a large amount of support for Prop 1A.

    morris brown Reply:

    Peter: You with Derek, are as devious as the smoke and mirrors promoters of the project were in 2008. That is quite a spin you put on the numbers, which are as I reported. Since when do we start counting votes not cast as a determination of an election?

    Here is another spin: If 100% of the votes not cast were against the project the numbers would be:
    then the vote would have been 54.8% no 45.2 yes

    Peter Reply:

    Let me rephrase. I was pointing out to Derek that more than 50% of the people who turned in a ballot in that electiondid in fact vote “no”.

    I will retract my last sentence, as it does nothing but confuse my point.

    Eric M Reply:

    What can really bring the cost up is if the Authority decided to do the whole line as slab track, versus ballasted track. That can substantially increase the cost, but lowers the maintenance cost. I think it is smart to invest more into slab track initially as the long term maintenance benefits increase.

  2. Elizabeth
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 07:16
    #2

    Speaking of Kings County,

    The Authority has now posted the draft EIR documents on their website.

    Merced to Fresno: http://cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/draft-eir-m-f.aspx
    Fresno to Bakersfield: http://cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/draft-eir-f-b.aspx

    Happy reading.

    We would encourage everyone to participate in the process. Be specific. Include backup documents. Be polite.

    joe Reply:

    In the spirit of being positive, courteous and helpful, I’d recommend “the process” be positive and focus on problem solving.

    So when you peruse the EIR, be sure to suggest to a more responsible rail design or car based alternative that would allow CA to accommodate our projected transportation needs to build a better California.

    It would be selfish to ignore the problems HSR is trying to solve. So offer alternatives; A4 track ROW in the peninsula is costly, a more cost effective solution to accommodate regional transportation demand at Stanford and the mid-peninsula is to expand the Palo Alto Airport to accommodate jets. O

    Peter Reply:

    Glaring flaw number one: Under the No-Build Scenario, “Section 2.4.1.3 Aviation Element”, they discuss Fresno-Yosemite and Merced Municipal-Macready Field, and mention a number of smaller general aviation airports, but fail to mention the biggest airport in the area, Castle Airport, in terms of aviation activity. They mention it earlier in the discussion of the commercial development that the city/county wants to build on the property, but I think they should have included a discussion of the airport’s future potential for development under a no-build alternative.

    Peter Reply:

    I guess it’s not too great of a flaw if there are no plans to develop the airport. Just might be a CYA move.

    Jack Reply:

    Castle Expert is more qualified to comment on this; but you can only plan based on potential for so long. There have been plans to develop Castle into “something more” for YEARS and nothing significant has been done. One of the primary desires of Castle is for the HMF to push forward there development plans. Given the state of the economy I just don’t see a large interest to develop this particular solution.

    Were lucky HSR is still on the table right now and that’s just because we have funding. Just wait until someone else’s pet project gets cut and they’ll be looking at our train with dollar signs in there eyes.

    Peter Reply:

    Agreed. However, given that these documents will be the next legal battleground for HSR, I think it would be prudent to cross this T, even if it is unlikely to amount to anything. No reason to give NIMBYs any even potential cause of action.

    202_cyclist Reply:

    @Peter– I think this was referring to scheduled aviation activity (i.e) passenger flights. A more significant issue is that both Visalia and Merced are Essential Air Service (EAS) airports (http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/X-50%20Role_files/100501nonalaska.xls) and the House Republicans are trying their best to eliminate the EAS program, which costs approximately $160M per year.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=12932423

    202_cyclist Reply:

    Castle is a general aviation airport, thus, should probably not be considered for the purposes of an Environmental Impact Report. As I mentioned, it is only a matter of time before scheduled air service is likely eliminated at Visalia and Merced.

    Peter Reply:

    They did mention other, less significant GA airports, though.

    Jack Reply:

    Has CAARD had a change of heart and swung back to being informative stewards of a beneficial project, or are you just trying to lure us into a false sense of security before you pounce and try to destroy HSR again.

    Spokker Reply:

    Is it good to be for the project and bad to want to destroy it?

    Arthur Dent Reply:

    Is it good to be for high-speed rail and bad to be against this implementation?

    VBobier Reply:

    One is either for HSR or against HSR, this being for it and then against HSR being built is hogwash, their is and should never be a middle ground. Either be outright for HSR or be opposed to HSR.

  3. Nadia
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 08:21
    #3

    For those who will be commenting on the EIR’s, CARRD has an old, but still relevant page on how to write comments.

    http://www.calhsr.com/environmental-review/how-to-write-an-eir-comment/

  4. Brandi
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 08:23
    #4

    Actually, strategically it is quite smart to make a fuss and be hostile in negotiations it is a form of leverage. We had family friends where I used to live. There house was in the way of a proposed new highway. They were very emotional at first and got some quotes in the local paper. Then as it drug on they decided to keep making noise so they would get a better deal for their land. I think you’ll see lots of different strategies and posturing by different folks in order to get the best deal for themselves. Can’t blame people for making the best of a situation.

    Jack Reply:

    Fresno very recently got a crash course in land negotiations. Trump was going to buy up a failing golf course and the surrounding area to develop a very prestigious project. They hit a ton of snags including one land owner who wanted upwards of 15+ million for his 3 acre parcel.

    I think some of the Kings residents are looking to this example as how to obstruct, but they need to realize that Trump didn’t have eminent domain to help him. (Or that he didn’t want to pursue the use of this based on shaky supreme court rulings to the effect).

    Kings residents also need to realize the authority is only out the purchase 100ft wide swath of land. There not going to be out for the whole parcel, yes this may make working your fields inconvenient. Farmers are nothing but resilient, drought, pests, disease can kill a crop and they will keep on going. The (non-polluting, energy efficient) public works project isn’t going to stop them either.

    Alan Reply:

    Rather than fighting it out, the farmers whose lands are being bisected would be better off to work with CHSRA to ensure continued access to the other side of the tracks. Constructing what amounts to large box culverts to allow farm equipment to pass under the tracks is not unreasonable, and probably would not add substantially to the cost of the project.

    They can fight all they want, but in the end the Authority will still own the land.

    VBobier Reply:

    Yep, agreed, the CHSRA unlike Trump has the power to compel land to be sold to them, No buts or refusing to sell allowed, Trump didn’t have the power, so obstruction will not work as the price offered will not ever go up.

  5. Jack
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 09:44
    #5

    I’m not an expert on this, but has anyone done any research on what the effects of HSR developed TOD on water usage would be. Could HSR based TOD actually improve water allocations and help Kings County farmers with another pain point?

  6. morris brown
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 10:49
    #6

    AP Exclusive: Calif. high-speed rail cost soars

    http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/09/3825826/ap-exclusive-calif-high-speed.html


    SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Building tracks for the first section of California’s proposed high-speed rail line will cost $2.9 billion to $6.8 billion more than originally estimated, raising questions about the affordability of the nation’s most ambitious rail project at a time when its planning and finances are under fire.

    ….


    State Sen. Doug La Malfa, R-Willows, said he is preparing legislation that would ask voters to reconsider the project in June 2012. Voters authorized $9 billion in bonds for the project in 2008, although most of those bonds have not yet been sold.

    “This thing is well on its way to massive cost overruns,” La Malfa said.

    “The costs are starting to escalate and we need to take a time-out,” he said.

    The rail authority’s chief executive, Roelof van Ark, said planners anticipated the higher costs as more information about land acquisition and other details related to actual construction became known.

    “We’ve had cost increases, but I believe the costs are now realistic and fair,” he said.

    Van Ark also said he expects the estimated total cost of the project, originally pegged at $43 billion, to rise.

    Construction of the first stretch of tracks – as much as 140 miles from south of Merced to just north of Bakersfield – is scheduled to begin by September 2012 using $3.5 billion in federal money and an estimated $2.8 billion from the sale of state bonds approved by voters.

    The higher cost estimates already have been factored into the federally funded construction, van Ark said.

    So it now official. Start believing 65 – 80 billion not $43 billion.

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    Who said it was going up to $65 billion? They have reduced elevated sections by about 50% to where it is only 20% of each segment. The costs are still above $45 million per mile. I do wonder what the bids will come down to as with many competing for this project, the estimates might come in lower.

    Arthur Dent Reply:

    My news source states the numbers slightly different:

    “The reports put the cost of the the initial segment at anywhere from $10 billion to $13.9 billion. The cost estimate for the same segment in 2009 was $7.1 billion.”

    IIRC they moved some of the work like the Chowchilla Wye out of these EIRs. If these reported numbers don’t reflect the reduced scope of work, we’re looking at a few billion more overall. Another way to look at is that, apples to apples, the $7.1 billion is closer to $5 billion.

    Can someone explain what we’ll get for the money and what the latest construction plans call for? I lost track when there was talk of phasing (Initial Operating Segments) where the initial segment wouldn’t even have electrification. How much does an IOS in the CV cost?

    synonymouse Reply:

    Dan Walters is indeed correct in calling for Jerry Brown to directly intervene in “nowhere to nowhere”. Every day that passes it becomes clearer that budgetary cuts will be deeper, leaving very little funding for any hsr. Brown should take up Tolmach’s obvious point: the single biggest issue with California passenger rail is the missing trackage between Bakersfield and LA required to be built to modern engineering standards.

    Borden to Corcoran is way, way down the list of upgrade priorities and orphan trackage at that location would be a perfect scandal. How dumb. La Malfa will probably get nowhere in the legislature and will have take his campaign directly to the voters. How sad it has to go that far to rattle the cage down at the PB-CHSRA fuhrerbunker.

    But I did come across a new term coined by a financial analyst and quoted by CNBC. Effervescent Palmdale drum-beaters and stilt-mongers – “happy clappies”!

    Arthur Dent Reply:

    the single biggest issue with California passenger rail is the missing trackage between Bakersfield and LA

    Agreed. I thought the problem is that Bakersfield-LA EIR work won’t meet fed deadlines. How do we get around that?

    Brown better hurry up and fix this mess or his legacy will be the Moonbeam to Nowhere.

    Clem Reply:

    I like ‘stilt-monger’. Sounds nefarious.

    synonymouse Reply:

    Sometimes I get carried away with trying to coin a new phrase or two.

    Two pet peeves:

    Railroads are really costly to construct, maintain, and operate. It is very difficult to justify a gratuitous extra 30-40 route miles. Why is it so hard to grasp this, which someone at the UP would see immediately? No one is trying to mess with Palmdale – they are just off-route.

    Why are the ARRA rules(or Prop 1A provisos for that matter)viewed as gospel? They were fabricated by politicians and can be modified by them when demanded. Change the blinking rules so we can bank the money for the most necessary undertakings. That’s what we are paying the pols for.

    VBobier Reply:

    Good luck there Syno, Jerry Brown has supported HSR for at least 30 Years, HSR repeal will not happen, HSR will be built. The phrase You and whose Army? comes to mind. Get My drift?

    Peter Reply:

    According to the numbers in Section 5 of the respective EIRs, the $10 to $13.9 billion are for everything, including electrification.

    Electrification accounts for between $1 and $1.143 billion of those numbers.

    This, of course, depends on which alternatives are selected.

    Peter Reply:

    The only thing not included is rolling stock, the cost of which is spread over the entire thing.

    Also, please note that the costs listed in the EIR are for the complete Merced to Bakersfield line.

    The costs for the ICS have not changed as of yet, and the higher costs overall were taken into account in budgeting for that.

    Elizabeth Reply:

    To make it apples to apples, you need to put the numbers into YOE (we added 15% to account for inflation) and the maintenance facility.

    We have the old number at $8 billion. New numbers are $12.2 – $17.2 . Our middle of the road number is just over $15 billion, assuming UP row is used north of Merced and that maintenance facility is NOT at Castle (which adds $500 million to project). Our January numbers had the segment at $15 billion but we assumed it would be a couple of billion lower after the value engineering in last couple of months. We are surprised to see it this high.

    202_cyclist Reply:

    15% inflation rate? You’ve got to be joking. I think US DOT uses a 6-7% discount rate to account for inflation. The real rate of inflation in the current economy is much less than that, as witnessed by the Federal Reserve’s recent statement.

    Elizabeth Reply:

    15% is not the annual cost. I’m only using an annual amount of 2.5-3%, in line with what the Authority has used in fed applications and biz plan. if anything it is low.

    Peter Reply:

    Aren’t the numbers in the EIR in YOE?

    Elizabeth Reply:

    Nope. They leave that calculation to the reader.

    Peter Reply:

    Why is it relevant for this discussion whose ROW is used north of Merced if Castle is not chosen as the HMF site?

    No construction would be made north of Merced until Merced-Sac is built if the HMF is somewhere else.

    Elizabeth Reply:

    We agree – we presume that because of additional cost of connecting Castle it won’t happen so we leave that cost out. The original budget ($8 billion YOE for CV) included money for that. If we were to take it out of the 2009 numbers, the increase would be even more stark.

    Peter Reply:

    Ah, now I understand.

    I think Castle is financially infeasible, even if the Authority switched to Altamont (excessively unlikely), given that it is the only HMF location under consideration that would require a spur, two actually (one from the north and one from the south), to connect it to the mainline.

    Politically, I think it’s most likely going to be located in Fresno County.

    Sorry, Castle Expert. Seriously, I am sorry, I wanted it to got to Castle, too.

    Clem Reply:

    At $71 to $99 million/mile through the pancake-flat Central Valley, is it still worth it? That’s more than double to more than triple the cost of Spanish high-speed lines. The Spanish clearly have a secret, and they need to let us in on it…

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    Would $393-723 million be reasonable for the professional services category?

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    referring to fresno-merced btw

    Richard Mlynarik Reply:

    Somebody’s getting a right servicing.

    Peter Reply:

    How much of that could be explained by differences in ROW acquisition costs? That was listed by van Ark as one of the main reasons for the increased cost estimate. How much does that cost differ with that of Spain. Having never been to Spain, I am visualizing the trains traveling across large swaths of desert, which shouldn’t be too expensive to acquire, if they’re not already owned by the government.

    Also, just because it’s twice to triple the cost of Spain’s doesn’t mean it’s not worth it anymore. IIRC, Spain is the only country that builds anything close to that cheaply…

    mike Reply:

    ROW acquisition costs cannot be that high unless they are overpaying by at least one order of magnitude.

    mike Reply:

    “For example, up to $3.8 billion of the increased cost is associated with elevating the train tracks for up to 42 miles.”

    Perhaps their secret involves not elevating 30% of the total mileage in an area that is totally flat and largely devoid of densely populated cities!

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    I think that is still part of the issue, they need to try and reduce as much viaducting as possible. They consider retained fills as part of the elevated profile. I did find something really fishy in the BNSF alternative. Less mileage=more when not bypassing More mileage=less per mile. If using all the bypasses the cost per mile was in the $34 million per mile range. I think it is safe to say that the cost estimates are quite conservative and I do wonder about construction firms who might start a bidding war. I still think the cost is a bit too high. Don’t the French do their lines at $15 million per mile?

    Alon Levy Reply:

    The French do their lines at $15 million per km, and that was 10 years ago. The most recent cheap project there, the LGV Est’s second phase, is $24 million/km.

    Take the A-Train Reply:

    Flood zones? Looking at the EIR documents that CAARD posted, it looks like the quite a bit of the track runs in areas where the 100 year flood zone is a couple feet above ground level–and they have to rise another 6 feet above that (same source) for clearance. I suppose that’s an effect of several streams / rivers and the super flat valley?

    Tom McNamara Reply:

    I actually think that number is designed to scare off competition for the project. I think PB doesn’t want competition and is trying to suggest the project is so expensive that there’s no alternative for bids.

    The alternative I would select for Fresno – Bakersfield (#17) checks in at $6.25 billion which is only about $55 million a mile. Plus, this doesn’t assume that there will be any local contribution from Fresno or the County’s Measure C program which I think will be the case to ensure local contractors get a piece of the action.

    I also think that the Authority should use the eminent domain card fast, and make homeowners choose to fight them over the price they offer. It’s not the nicest way to do business, but it will make sure that there are fewer long delays that could push up costs.

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    So as per usual PB gets the dollars, public dollars wasted, here we go again.

    Tom McNamara Reply:

    Well I should have also added above that $ 55 million a mile, you are talking about $10 billion total for Merced to Bakersfield. If you add the rest of the system for phase 1 at (around 270 miles) at double that, $110 million a mile, it’s $30 billion.

    $30 billion plus $10 billion is $40 billion. You add the heavy maintenance facility and operations and maintenance and we’re looking at maybe $5 million more…. which is $45 billion.

    The real mystery is why Merced to Fresno is so much more expensive according to their estimates ($75 million or so) than Fresno – Bakersfield.

    Peter Reply:

    What are you referring to that is $75 million more expensive for Merced-Fresno than for Fresno-Bakersfield?

    Tom McNamara Reply:

    The average cost per mile I get is around $75 million per mile for Merced – Fresno and as low as $50 per mile for Fresno to Bakersfield. I would select of the 24 alternatives for Fresno Bakersfield one that is pretty cheap but I didn’t do it for that reason…and I came up with $55 million per mile.

    Clem’s point was that this would be an indication of how cheap it would get because of how flat the Valley is…. but he was citing $100 million a mile which is way more than what I get….

    Peter Reply:

    Oh, Merced-Fresno includes as an alternative UPRR/SR-99, which is mostly aerial. I think that’s where you’re probably getting the higher number from. The other alternatives are significantly cheaper.

    Tom McNamara Reply:

    Actually no, although I might be not using the right mileage for Merced Fresno. Even the cheap options are $4.3 billion or so for what is supposed to be 56 miles…. but because of the issue with the wye, I don’t know what it would break out to….

    The Highway 99 estimates are surreal. People are going to ride that horse forever, even though the Authority is likely to vote for stuff that might be half as much….

    Peter Reply:

    The shortest track length listed is 74 miles for the UPRR/SR-99 alternative with the West Chowchilla Wye option. 75 and 76 miles for the Hybrid alternative with Ave 24 and 21 option, respectively.

    And yes, I measured it out, and it doesn’t seem to add up with the 56 miles I’m getting for Merced-Fresno. I’m trying to figure out where the extra 18 or so miles are coming from. I’m guessing that incorporates the track length for flyovers, etc, associated with the wye.

    At 75 miles for the Hybrid alternative with Ave 24 wye at $3.827 billion, the cost is $51 million/mile.

    Peter Reply:

    You have to compare the total track length listed on page 25 in Section 2 with the costs in Section 5 for each alternative.

    Tom McNamara Reply:

    Okay so I selected the following:

    Merced–Fresno: BNSF option Avenue 21 Wye, $4.379 billion/ 93 miles of track =

    $47.1 million per mile

    Fresno–Bakersfield: Option 17 including Cocoran Bypass, Allensworth ByPass, and Shafter ByPass, $6.25 billion/ 177 miles =

    $35.31 million per mile

    Merced – Bakersfield: $10.629 billion / 270= $39.4 million per mile!

    Elizabeth Reply:

    I don’t know where you are getting those miles. The whole thing Merced – Bakersfield is 175-180 miles.

    I think the doc will take awhile to get through. Also keep in mind it is a draft so there can be mistakes (you should point these out in EIR comments so they get fixed).

    Clem Reply:

    Are we perhaps mixing track-miles with route-miles? That’s a factor of two floating about

    Peter Reply:

    “Are we perhaps mixing track-miles with route-miles?”

    No, I thought that too, but it doesn’t add up. The factor isn’t anything close to two.

    Peter Reply:

    @ Elizabeth

    “you should point these out in EIR comments so they get fixed”

    I’ve already made a note of it for my comments, stating that clarification is needed.

    Tom McNamara Reply:

    For Merced Fresno

    Divide page 3 of this: http://208.82.222.137/pdfs/fresno_merced/vol_1/05.pdf by page 25 of this:http://208.82.222.137/pdfs/fresno_merced/vol_1/02.pdf

    For Fresno Bakersfield

    Divide page 5 of this http://208.82.222.137/pdfs/fresno_bakersfield/vol_1/05.pdf by page 31 of this: http://208.82.222.137/pdfs/fresno_bakersfield/vol_1/02.pdf

    Perhaps I made a mistake, but even at $4.3 billion for Merced-Fresno at 56 miles it’s still $75 million a mile and at $6,250 billion for Fresno Bakersfield at 113 miles you get $55.3 million per mile. Those latter mileage estimates are from the Trip Calculator on the CHSRA website. The first set were from the DEIRs, obviously….

    Tom McNamara Reply:

    I tried to post this earlier but WordPress said my comment needed moderation….

    The numbers I used for the calculation appear in section 2 of each EIR and section 5, as Peter suggested. If you use the Trip Calculator on CHSRA’s website, those distances are much shorter than what is in the EIR… even so….

    I got around $55 million per mile for Fresno/Bakersfield and $71 million per mile for Merced Fresno in that instance.

    Using data wholly within the EIRs, I got around $35 million per mile for Fresno/Bakersfield and $47 million per mile for Merced to Fresno….

    Arthur Dent Reply:

    RE: “$71 to $99 million/mile through the pancake-flat Central Valley”

    Someone needs to clue in the US DOT. According to their press release it’s $4 million/mile.
    How do they get away with spreading this kind of – what’s the term – stragetic misrepresentation?

    The California High-Speed Rail Authority will receive $86.4 million for the Central Valley project, extending the current 110 mile segment an additional 20 miles to Merced and Bakersfield, advancing completion of the backbone of the Los Angeles to San Francisco corridor.

    Peter Reply:

    Or it’s just sheer stupidity by the person who prepared the press release.

    Arthur Dent Reply:

    Could be. There are a lot of stupid people out there representing us. Or it could be that it reads better than “California receives another $86.4 million, extending its rail project by another 1.07 miles!”

  7. tony d.
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 12:14
    #7

    Robert,
    I’ve been thinking of how to counter the news re: soaring cost of HSR through the Central Valley…but I can’t.
    That private and foreign funding better be coming soon, or else I may have to (gulp) change my position on this whole thing.
    Perhaps we may (emphasis on “may”) have to revisit a statewide system and focus on a commuter based HSR system from the outset:
    HSR Caltrain SF-SJ, (gulp) HSR ACE SJ-Stockton, HSR Metrolink in SoCal. If future funding will be hard to come by, I’d be inclined to vote for/support this.

    synonymouse Reply:

    @ tony d.

    You still have to wrestle with the Bakersfield-LA vacuum if you want any semblance of a north-south passenger rail network linking LA with NorCal. The expense of this link is matched by its utility to the state. It has been in the works for 100 years and should take priority.

    I suggest you could make a stand-alone cost-benefit ratio case for Bako-LA that even the GOP would have to begrudgingly recognize.

  8. Reality Check
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 13:21
    #8

    Burlingame’s Jerry Deal and new Caltrain JPB appointee blasts HSR:

    Deal levels harsh criticism at high-speed rail

    For the first time, a member of the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board, the entity that governs Caltrain, has come out publicly against a plan to build a high-speed rail line in California.

    Burlingame City Councilman Jerry Deal, writing bluntly on his website, has stated that the controversial proposal, which would utilize the Caltrain right of way through San Mateo County, would spell fiscal calamity for the state.

    Deal, recently named to the Caltrain board, declared, “High-speed rail, as proposed, will bankrupt California and drain all available transportation money from all other transportation projects. You will pay and pay dearly for many years.” He added that the ambitious enterprise is a “potentially catastrophic undertaking.”

    joe Reply:

    Jerry Deal For The Win.

    I’m sure he’s going to demand Gov Brown free up that yummy prop1A money for some San Mateo Caltrain work. After all he’s a loud mouth who knows HSR is a fiscal flop and his pet rock Caltrain project is awesome.

    I will ask our city Council’s Caltrain Rep to demand Deal explain how we citizens can trust Caltrainis working in goof faith given it’s board memebr thinks it’s a fical disaster.

    I’m also interested if this bad attitude is why Caltrain failed to coordinate with HSR to secure prop1A funds.

  9. Reality Check
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 14:12
    #9

    America’s Trains are a Link to Past; Europe’s Connect to Future

    Europe and California have switched routes with one another. Europe accelerated towards high-speed travel between major cities while California slowed to a halt, stranded somewhere in the San Joaquin Valley.

    [...]

    Expanding high-speed rail in Europe has become a priority of the European Union, both of its governments and its citizens. By contrast, America’s high-speed rail initiatives have stagnated. Elected officials and the general public see rail improvements as ancillary to more “urgent” issues, such as the recent debt-ceiling debacle.

    California’s rail system, like much of its other infrastructure, is a literal and figurative reminder of its initial promise and subsequent neglect.

    D. P. Lubic Reply:

    This ought to be reprinted in every paper in California, and in other places, too.

  10. Paulus Magnus
    Aug 9th, 2011 at 15:53
    #10

    I’m starting to think that a lot of the trouble might be arising from the essentially forced nature of CAHSR rather than arising as an organic development from extant rail lines.

    Eric M Reply:

    Forced nature, hell that needs to be done. The people in this country have become so short sighted it is ridiculous. The reason this country is falling apart is because people are losing vision. No one knows what it is to sacrifice as our grandparents did and we have now become a country drowning in selfishness and too many laws.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Forced nature in that it is a top down design rather than natural upgrades to proven routes and demand. And you have to admit, there are some incredibly idiotic routing choices made (such as the “viaduct and tunnel all the way to San Diego through Riverside and the IE”) that wouldn’t appear in an organically grown network.

    synonymouse Reply:

    The “forced nature” observation is certainly appropriate. Cattle follow certain trails; dogs tend to cross streets in the middle of the block. Eventually the easiest path is found, a mixture of length vs. level of difficulty, with the object spending the least amount of time and energy to get some place.

    That’s why we already have main transportation routes in California. To add to the list it requires a whole lot of money, which means freeways because the highway lobby is flush with cash. When was the last time a major new railroad was built?

    That would be the hsr, provided the funding is forthcoming. Then the question becomes where do put it? It’s simply how much does it cost versus what you get.

    Here’s question that might have some bearing. Would the Tejon connection have enough utility that the UP would be interested in buying it? You could pose the same question regarding the CHSRA line paralleling the Loop line. I dunno the answer. It would provide some question as to how much these infrastructure projects are worth on the open market when completed.

    synonymouse Reply:

    Meant to say it would provide some idea …

    Robert Cruickshank Reply:

    The “trouble” arises from the fact that American politics is dominated right now by a group of older, privileged people who are dead-set against spending money on anything, from health care to high speed rail, to help address the economic crisis and build a better future. HSR is coming along just fine, without any major problems. Its misfortune is to be coming along during a moment of right-wing political extremism so fierce that it threatens to destroy the country’s basic economic foundations.

    joe Reply:

    HSR is being forced on us by the twin bullies of reality and time, we’ve fallen into the 21st Century.

  11. John Burrows
    Aug 10th, 2011 at 00:14
    #11

    The CARRD cost estimate of last February included an estimate of just under $43 billion for high speed rail from San Jose to Sylmar—Elizabeth, if I remember right, referred to this, (or it could have been the “Grapevine” alternative stopping in Santa Clarita) as “high speed rail light”.

    Maybe CHSRA should push some form of “high speed rail light” as an interim step, and as part of this interim step find a way to get a few trains from San Jose to San Francisco and from Sylmar or Santa Clarita to Union Station.

    Peter Reply:

    “Maybe CHSRA should push some form of “high speed rail light” as an interim step, and as part of this interim step”

    AKA Initial Operating Segment.

  12. trentbridge
    Aug 10th, 2011 at 12:23
    #12

    Guess where the conservatives want to waste your money:

    “Nearly a year after Defense Secretary Robert Gates fired the head of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program for failing to keep costs and performance under control, a new internal Pentagon review finds the $382 billion stealth plane might get pushed back as much as three years, with an added $5 billion price tag.

    Doesn’t a HSR line costing at least $300 billion less, between LA and SF look like a bargain?

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