Shocking News: HSR Opponent Opposes Project

Jul 26th, 2011 | Posted by

Dog bites man, I know, but Joel Fox, who was part of the failed No on Prop 1A campaign, has a call for voters to repeal Prop 1A today. It deserves a reply:

California’s high speed rail program was in danger before the debt ceiling debate in Washington. Given the desire to cut trillions of dollars from federal spending that both sides of the debate advocate, seeing a $20 billion payment to California’s questionable high speed rail system is doubtful.

As Governor Jerry Brown’s spokesman said earlier this week, by that logic everything the state does in under threat, from public schools to law enforcement. The teabagger Congress’ commitment to the basic stability and prosperity of this country is doubtful. We should not then suddenly give up on our future just because of a temporary fit of insanity in the House of Representatives.

And yes, it is temporary. Nancy Pelosi is very well positioned to become Speaker again in 2013. The GOP is going to lose seats across the country in 2012. The public is fed up with their extremism, and the wingnuts who won office in 2010 are going to have a difficult time keeping their seats in 2012, especially with an Obama-friendly turnout. So blowing up HSR because 2011 is a difficult year for sanity in Congress is not a smart move.

If the federal money fails to appear, private investors are unlikely to kick in with their expected share of the project. That leaves Californians on the hook.

Not so. It’s entirely possible that private investors could kick in the money even if the feds won’t. It might not be wise, but it’s possible. There is a lot of money to be made on high speed rail, which Joel Fox, being an ideologue, refuses to acknowledge.

As to Californians being on the hook…um, no we’re not. We can if we want to be, though. If voters decide they want to fund a statewide rail plan, then yeah. But if no other funding materializes, we don’t build the entire system. Simple as that. No risk.

Since that time, reviews and studies on the proposed rail system have criticized the project. Projected ridership numbers that were attacked during the campaign have been continually challenged many times since the measure passed. The lack of a business plan has been cited. Costs estimates have grown — no surprise there.

The reviews and studies come from project opponents or from people like the Legislative Analyst’s Office who have no expertise in the subject. The ridership numbers have been challenged but never debunked, and a cursory glance at HSR ridership across the globe – including the Amtrak Acela – show high ridership numbers that will be repeated here. There is no reasonable, evidence-based case to be made that HSR ridership in California will not be high.

Proponents of the plan say, “Don’t worry,” money is not always lined up immediately for big infrastructure projects that have become a reality. The plan is needed, they say, because California’s projected population growth will demand alternative transportation systems.

But, if the money is not there to build the system, how does it get built? If only pieces of the system are put in place, how does it continually get funded if the original cost projections are low and the ridership projections are high?

Notice how Fox ignores the very important questions he raises, and instead changes the topic. If we want to build it, we can go out and find funding. It’s not difficult. A combination of federal taxes and bonds, combined with state, local, private and overseas contributions, can do the job. Fox’s problem is that suddenly we’re talking about taxes, and oh my god taxes are evil. At least they are if you’re a right-winger like Fox is.

Maybe the real question to ask is: Would the voters reconsider their decision on authorizing the bond sale?

All the polling suggests the answer is no, they wouldn’t.

How’s this sound: Resolved, being made aware with new information from current studies and projections that the high speed rail plan is unsustainable, we rescind the bond authorization.

If Fox thinks he can sneak that hugely misleading title and summary past Attorney General Kamala Harris, he’s deluded. And if he thinks he can raise the $2 million to get it on the ballot, and the $10-$20 million to pass it, he’s got even more money to burn than I realized.

Given the situation with the state budget, the dollars designated for the bond could be used elsewhere. Something like the above resolution is worth considering.

HSR will be a net contributor to the state budget, not only repaying its own state bonds but creating enough jobs, economic activity and tax revenue to make California much better off – to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a year.

Fox doesn’t tell you that either. Instead he wants Californians to be chained to their cars and their gas pumps. He believes the status quo, of 12% unemployment, is just fine. Why do anything new that might save the state money and create new jobs and revenue?

He can fantasize about going back to the ballot all he wants to. The facts are clear: HSR is good for Californians, good for the state’s bottom line, and remains popular with the public.

  1. Risenmessiah
    Jul 26th, 2011 at 18:32
    #1

    The only way Mr. Fox is going to put this on the ballot is with a little help from his friends like the MTC, BART, OCTA, etc. And that would make for really odd-bedfellows given the other supporters, so it seems so unlikely.

    joe Reply:

    I don’t see any alliance forming let alone the legality of MTC or BART pursuing a ballot initiative, that is political activity of government funded entities.

    StevieB Reply:

    If opponents work really hard gathering signatures for an initiative to rescind the bond authorization it could get on the state ballot by 2016. Talk about putting it to the voters is just talk, it will not happen.

    Spokker Reply:

    There are a lot of people who are unhappy with the way the project is going. I don’t think there are a lot of people who want to stop the project completely.

    Don’t let criticisms about initial segment selection, Altamont vs. Pacheco, or Grapevine vs. Tehachapis fool you into thinking they want it stopped altogether. The people like Joel Fox are the minority here.

    Risenmessiah Reply:

    I agree with you. Obviously, for those that don’t know, Joel Fox was the mastermind behind the campaign for Proposition 13 (or at least, he thinks he is).

    He obviously knows what it take to put a repeal on the ballot …but…. that would include getting entities on board who are not exactly “tight” with him or his usual constituents. Synonymouse and Richard Mlynarik notwithstanding, this is has about as much mojo the idea to have counties break away to form “South California”.

  2. morris brown
    Jul 26th, 2011 at 19:36
    #2

    Robert writes:


    If the federal money fails to appear, private investors are unlikely to kick in with their expected share of the project. That leaves Californians on the hook.

    Not so. It’s entirely possible that private investors could kick in the money even if the feds won’t. It might not be wise, but it’s possible. There is a lot of money to be made on high speed rail, which Joel Fox, being an ideologue, refuses to acknowledge.

    As I have written before, that’s not what an expert says. Walter Bell, a member of the peer review committee makes quite clear that without government assurance they will do their part, private equity will not appear. Bell is the only member of the peer review committee with direct HSR experience. Certainly right now, those assurances are non existent.

    Bell’s testimony May 11 2011:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXoJ9lrZ4uE

    joe Reply:

    Careful reading – as in reading what you quoted, is that private investment without the feds maybe not be wise, but it’s possible.

    Listening to the DERAILHSR posted video – Walter Bell does not declare private investment would be impossible.

    jonah Reply:

    wow, a whole 45 views…

  3. Reality Check
    Jul 26th, 2011 at 22:15
    #3

    Scaled-back Peninsula HSR system encouraged by officials

    Regional transportation officials plan to push for a scaled-back high-speed rail system on the Peninsula that also would accommodate a modernized Caltrain with a minimum of new construction.

    “We see this as the way forward to save this project,” said John Grubb, a senior vice president of the Bay Area Council, a pro-business advocacy group.

    ericmarseille Reply:

    Trap

    joe Reply:

    Admiral Ackbar, I think the scaled-backed solution is actually fully operational HSR system.

    If they follow law and conduct a EIR that runs to 2035, that is 4 track EIR and build a scaled back HSR alignment, CA can add to the system a decade later if service exceeds capacity

    The Bay Area coalition would attempt to develop a mutually acceptable plan that would:

    – Deliver both an electrified Caltrain service and high-speed trains to the Peninsula as soon as possible by creating a simple and affordable design.

    – Minimize impacts on affected communities by building only the tracks and structures that are needed to run high-speed service.

    – Connect the system to San Francisco’s Transbay Terminal.

    – Meet the legal requirements of Proposition 1A, which specifies that high-speed trains must be able to run between the Transbay Terminal and Los Angeles Union Station in less than 2 hours, 40 minutes.

    Since CARRD and Peninsula opponents purport to not be NIMBYs, but skeptical citizens very concerned about inflated ridership, the future expansion allowed in the 2035 EIR will never be needed.

    No worries. And if it more capacity is needed, well they never opposed HSR as NIMBYs so we can build the expansion.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    CA can add to the system a decade later if service exceeds capacity

    Okay but when it exceeds capacity in 2025, no state or federal money for the expansion. I’m sure that would cause lots of sputtering, muttering and even some high dudgeon. How about between the time it reaches capacity and the time the expansion is built HSR trains get priority? When HSR wants to add a super-express to Los Angeles departing at 5:20 the 5:10 local to Redwood City and the 5:17 express to San Jose get bustituted. For a decade or so. 50 percent local match since the state and federal governments are do this to improve local service.

    Joe Reply:

    I give up.
    What happens in 2025 under this hypothetical situation?

    In my world The Watcher tells me HSR gets upgraded easily because the EIR was in place and
    HSR is popular and gasoline is sold by the oz.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    And your hypothetical that two tracks will be enough forever and ever is as hypothetical as them reaching capacity in 2025. It’s very very easy to do when you try to mix local trains tottering along at an average speed of 30 and express trains attempting to cover the same set of tracks at an average speed of 90 over 50 miles of track.

    The State and Federal government are more or less willing to give the Peninsula a four track electrified railroad for free. With little if any difference in the effect of a grade separated electrified two track railroad. If they don’t want it now, when they do want it they should have to pay for it.

  4. Miles Bader
    Jul 26th, 2011 at 22:26
    #4

    “… for as little as forty dollars!”

    Miles Bader Reply:

    Sorry; that supposed to be a reply to Reality Check’s “Scaled-back Peninsula HSR system ncouraged by officials”…. (how I love this crappy forum software!)

  5. VBobier
    Jul 26th, 2011 at 22:46
    #5

    I didn’t know the project needed saving, Money will come as Repubs in Congress are not invulnerable, Right now in the House of Representatives there are 240 Republicans and 193 Democrats, a difference of 47 Elected and Voting Representatives out of 435 total seats, 2 currently I think are empty possibly or are Independents, of course there are 6 others who don’t vote, they just watch, It wouldn’t take much to reverse that, but then by not wanting to create any jobs and by attacking the old and the disabled, Repubs may have made enough people angry to reverse the 2010 election in both the House and the US Senate. In the Senate there are 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans for difference of 6 there(the Senate is always at 100 seats), So it won’t take much to regain control of the ship of state. So funds will come, as patience is a virtue.

    Risenmessiah Reply:

    The electoral calculus for Democrats is going to be very interesting over the next few years. Here is a map I created that shows what I think is the most likely outcome of the 2012 election: (Obama prevails in a close one.: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Xn

    That said, what this map also indicates is that in order to hold the Senate or gain the House back, the Democrats will also have to invest significant resources and time in states that Obama is not competitive in. That means that the DNC has to figure out how to spend just enough to win, but no so much that it compromises a state that is already in the bag.

    Of note, there are twenty seven Congressional districts Obama won in 2008 that were Republican pick ups in 2010. All but three were in states that he won in that election. Even if the D’s recover all those twenty seven Congressional seats that still gives them an effective ruling majority of 4 because of Gabby Gifford’s absence. (Congress would be split 219-215). Take three away and the Republicans will control (218-217).

    Again though, this will involve the D’s picking up seats in states Obama may very well lose, or redistricting may eliminate, and doesn’t assume any natural turnover.

    What’s more likely, I think is almost a situation akin to the UK Parliament where Boehner will be speaker, but will need Democrat votes to pass a lot of things. That in turn, will keep the Senate in check and allow the lame-duck Obama to become “the liberal in chief” and push for the most progressive and aggressive agenda.

    This is because, I would argue, the mainstream GOP and Democrats fear the Tea Party more than they fear each other.

  6. Reality Check
    Jul 26th, 2011 at 23:12
    #6
  7. synonymouse
    Jul 27th, 2011 at 10:40
    #7

    CNBC bitching about infrastructure rundown:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43911583

    The wealthy and the corporations do not want to pay for infrastructure maintenance – they expect it to be provided to them for free along with tax forgiveness, etc., etc.

    Maybe back East they should stop using ****ing salt on the roads. That would help some.

    But the underlying challenge is to build infrastructure that is utilized. There won’t be enough revenue to keep up the extraneous.

    Ergo don’t build aerials unless truly required. The PB-Bechtel stilt-crazies need a re-education to the effect that surface routes, if at all possible, are always to be preferred. All class one rr’s know this.

    Owen Evans Reply:

    HSR both in China and Japan all have huge swaths of their rights-of-way on viaducts, and that’s definitely not just in urban areas. My unscientific estimates indicate that more than half of the Tokaido Shinkansen is built on a viaduct.

    Sometimes it’s actually cheaper to just build over things and take a small swath of land, rather than try to slice and dice everything on the ground to make it fit while still maintaining access.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    Maybe back East they should stop using ****ing salt on the roads

    We’ll all come to California for the three or four months of the year that the roads are impassable.

  8. VBobier
    Jul 27th, 2011 at 11:19
    #8

    @ Risenmessiah: Not like South California will ever happen(Javascript in Firefox causes major memory leaks and crashes the browser too much, will be fixed in Firefox 7 I’ve read).

  9. Peter
    Jul 27th, 2011 at 13:32
    #9

    OT: Bad news for plaintiffs in Atherton II case. A recent appellate decision in a different case makes it likely that they will be barred from litigating most, if not all, of the issues they want to in that case.

    https://services.saccourt.com/PublicDMS/Search.aspx

    2008-80000022

    morris brown Reply:

    What ruling are you writing about? What is the case number and court site where that ruling is published?

    Peter Reply:

    I don’t know what you mean with “court site”, but it’s attached under the document title of “Notice – Other”, dated 7/25/2011 under the documents for Atherton I. The case in question is Silverado Modjeska Recreation and Parks District et al. v. County of Orange, Case No. D055150, 2011 WL 2654606, and was decided by the 4th Appellate District.

  10. Joe
    Jul 27th, 2011 at 18:25
    #10

    American Society of Civil Engineers releases first-ever report on how U.S. economy and family budgets will fare if America fails to fund surface transportation improvements.

    They caution that continued investments in existing modes of transportation may not be enough for us competitiveness and point to international investments in HSR.

    http://www.asce.org/PressRelease.aspx?id=12884909810

  11. Nadia
    Jul 27th, 2011 at 18:34
    #11

    OT: CARRD sent a letter to the HSRA board highlighting our difficulty in obtaining Public Records – specifically, our difficulty getting the Ridership Peer Review report that was due to the Authority by March 31st..

    The letter and supporting docs, including email exchanges are here:
    http://www.calhsr.com/resources/ridership-forecast/

    If anyone has been able to obtain a copy, please email us at info at calhsr.com

    peninsula Reply:

    Nadia, I hope you will consider reposting in Robert’s new thread. You can be sure that Robert posts new topic as soon as the conversation begins to get uncomfortable for chsra or pro-hsr, and in this manner manages to bury the latest developments that are not in his favor.

    Question. Have you copied lawmakers and attorney general on your material?
    Question. What is the recourse to a) get the material b) bring CHSRA to justice under the laws?

    Comment. There’s been an obvious lack of conversation on this blog about the abrupt resignation of Pringle. Could there be a connection between resignation of president tof the board and this issue? A couple issues at hand here 1) law breaking 2) obviously the desire by CHSRA to bury this material. Must be quite damning.

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