Amtrak’s International Peer Review Challenges Soviet-Style Attacks

Jun 13th, 2011 | Posted by

Trofim Denisovich Lysenko may or may not have been a good scientist. (According to the agricultural scientists, he probably wasn’t.) But he was a good scientist in the Soviet Union in the 1920s, where ideological correctness, toeing the party line, was far more important than whether your conclusions were actually valid or not.

Lysenko was praised by Stalin for his “insights” on agriculture which, when applied, did little to help avert famines suffered during the late 1920s and early 1930s. When critics pointed out the flaws with Lysenko’s research, Lysenko denounced them, and Stalin often had them shot.

We’re not at that point in this country. The shooting, I mean. Aside from that, the House Republican caucus fully embraces what has come to be known as Lysenkoism – the “manipulation or distortion of the scientific process as a way to reach a predetermined conclusion as dictated by an ideological bias, often related to social or political objectives.” Oil companies fund “climate scientists” who say global warming is a “hoax” which leads to Republican legislators, who are also funded by the same oil companies, to dutifully pronounce in Congress that global warming is indeed a hoax. That view, which flies in the face of scientific evidence, has now become Republican Party orthodoxy. Mitt Romney risks his front-runner status and earns the wrath of the wingnut base when he says global warming is real.

Sadly, Lysenkoism isn’t limited to global warming. House Republicans are willing to distort any fact or evidence to suit their agenda – and when distortion isn’t possible, they’ll just denounce those who disprove the Republican party line.

For example, House Republicans have long railed against Amtrak. There’s no good reason to do; passenger rail is popular with many Republican voters and lots of House Republicans’ districts have successful passenger rail service. Amtrak is subsidized, sure, as is every other form of transportation in this country. The subsidies are small, and the rewards are considered by most Americans to be worthwhile.

But the House Republicans exhibit a Politburo-like loyalty to their party line. And when Amtrak comes out with an international peer review that shows their HSR plans are sensible, House Republicans react by dismissing the inconvenient evidence.

Sure, the Soviet metaphor isn’t necessary. For most House Republicans it’s a simple matter of ideological dogma that happens to be conveniently linked to massive campaign contributions from oil companies and others who have every reason to oppose high speed rail.

According to The Hill, the international peer review is positive:

“The positive feedback from our experienced colleagues around the world is encouraging and demonstrates that Amtrak’s high-speed rail plan is a proper response to meet the region’s need for increased transportation capacity and is a viable way forward,” Amtrak vice president Al Engel said in a statement.

The reviewers found that “Amtrak’s initial projections of ridership, revenues, and costs for this new system were appropriately conservative,” Engel added.

“We are pleased that many of the world leaders in high-speed rail have offered their ideas to help refine and improve our plans,” he said.

I wasn’t able to actually find the report or the statement on the Amtrak website, so I can’t actually comment on the substance. But the concept isn’t surprising. We’ve known for a long time that HSR is globally successful – as a 2010 report by CALPIRG showed. Most HSR systems around the world have high ridership and most are profitable. That includes, of course, the Acela. In other words, Amtrak’s plans to expand its offerings on the Northeast Corridor are plausible.

For Republicans, all that is merely inconvenience:

The chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has frequently referred to Amtrak as a “Soviet-style operation”…

“By focusing on projects that make sense, leveraging private-sector investment and opening the door to public-private partnerships, we can do more with less and finally take our nation in a new direction,” Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Pa.), who chairs the House Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials, wrote last week in an op-ed in The Hill.

“It’s time for passenger rail to enjoy the same success deregulation brought to the freight rail, commercial truck and airline industries,” Shuster said.

Airline deregulation a success? Hahahahaha. Here’s what a former American Airlines CEO had to say about deregulation:

The consequences have been very adverse. Our airlines, once world leaders, are now laggards in every category, including fleet age, service quality and international reputation. Fewer and fewer flights are on time. Airport congestion has become a staple of late-night comedy shows. An ever higher percentage of bags are lost or misplaced. Last-minute seats are harder and harder to find. Passenger complaints have skyrocketed. Airline service, by any standard, has become unacceptable.

Meanwhile, the financial health of the industry, and of the individual carriers, has become ever more precarious. Most have been through the bankruptcy process at least once, and some have passed through on multiple occasions.

He’s not alone – there’s a large body of research indicating that airline deregulation has failed. Yet for House Republicans to continue to cite it as a success story – in order to ignore yet more evidence that HSR is a good idea – shows their commitment to American Lysenkoism.

I don’t expect them to stop anytime soon. As long as Republicans control the House, do not expect any forward movement on high speed rail. True, we didn’t get much from Democrats either. The goal must instead be to elect politicians who are not owned by the oil industry. Only then will the Lysenkoism end and the common sense begin.

  1. Loren Petrich
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 01:18
    #1

    I’m rather familiar with Trofim Lysenko and Lysenkoism, and he had been a crop-plant breeder and quack geneticist who had gotten the favor of Party leaders with his claims of great success. Party leaders all the way up to Joseph Stalin himself. He claimed that genes do not exist, that there is no genotype-phenotype distinction, and that he could alter crop plants’ heredity with his experimental treatments. He ridiculed the notion of a “hereditary substance”, even as mainstream biologists were closing in on its identity.

    Though he and his followers became active in the 1930′s, he was not completely successful until 1948, when his theories became the official party line, approved of by none other than Joseph Stalin himself. Visiting biologists found him to be scientifically illiterate; he dismissed statistical testing as a waste of time.

    Zealous following of a party line is something Communists have been known for, whatever it happens to be this week. It seems much like what Republicans and movement conservatives do — anyone who departs from it gets forced to recant their deviations, as Newt Gingrich did about Paul Ryan’s budget.

    peninsula Reply:

    right. No Zealous following of the party line happening on this blog… This is probably Roberts most ironic diatribe yet…

    VBobier Reply:

    Yep, Goose Stepping all the way, Can You say Straight Jacket for the 2012 election?

  2. D. P. Lubic
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 04:22
    #2

    A bit off topic, but we have seen this before–and it is a part of the reason we no longer have Pullman-Standard building passenger cars:

    http://rwer.wordpress.com/2011/06/14/american-manufacturing-slowly-rotting-away-how-industries-die/

  3. D. P. Lubic
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 05:01
    #3

    Also of potential interest here:

    http://marcus-bmode.blogspot.com/2009/07/jeff-brouws.html

    Peter Reply:

    I think that’s the most depressing thing I’ve read in days…

  4. Paulus Magnus
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 07:34
    #4

    Except that the peer review didn’t say that the plan was sensible, it said that the costing, ridership, and revenue numbers put forth was reasonably conservative for the plan detailed. I struggle to think of a world where, despite ROW, stations, and substantial track already available, 260 million per mile construction costs, an order of magnitude more than many other systems, is a good and sensible plan. For crying out loud, it’s about the same price as the maglev system the Japanese are planning to build, but the Japanese at least have the excuse that something like 80% of the line is going to be tunneling through mountain or deep underground in urban areas.

    Amtrak’s NEC HSR plan is right to be criticized by anyone who cares about appropriately investing. Going rah-rah no matter what puts you in the Lysenko camp.

    As for airline deregulation, air travel has greatly increased (hence the congestion) and fares have dropped greatly. That’s generally considered a success.

    Peter Reply:

    The Amtrak plan is in YOE money, though, IIRC. As in 2030 dollars, not 2011.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Source please.

    Peter Reply:

    Total construction costs would be $117.5 billion in year-of-expenditure dollars, or $42 billion in 2010 dollars, about the same as the California High-Speed Rail project.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Amtrak says it is 117 billion in 2010 dollars on page 20. It’s about 42 billion using a 7% discount rate that doesn’t appear to be connected to year of expenditure. Not quite sure what the heck the discount rate is actually supposed to reflect, since a lower rate equals higher costs. Additionally, the NEC Master Plan, which is rather less ambitious, is 43 billion in 2010 dollars, 52 including state of good repair backlogs. It doesn’t strike me as being plausible for the HSR plans to be cheaper.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    No. Total construction costs would be $117 billion in YOE dollars, or $42 billion in net present value. This means that, if the US government authorizes $42 billion to be spent immediately, and the money is put into bonds with 7% nominal yield, then the total amount including bond interest will be enough to build the system.

    Dan Reply:

    I wanna get me some of those 7% bonds…. haven’t seen bond yields that high in awhile.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Yeah, exactly. USDOT keeps clinging to a 7% discount rate for project evaluation, but nowadays 4% is more defensible. And even then, the headline price for infrastructure project is usually the inflation-adjusted number, not net present value.

    Ironically, choosing a lower discount rate makes long-term projects more advantageous. However, Amtrak is less interested in that than in making people think its proposal isn’t all that gold-plated.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Air fares, for instance, have dropped by 20% since 1995, despite large increases in the price of fuel. CATO suggests an inflation adjusted 40% decrease in fares between 1978 and 1997, and a tripling in passengers carried since then. That’s not necessarily sustainable with the rise of fuel prices, which is why electric HSR can be a valuable investment for short distance high travel corridors, but it certainly puts paid to Robert’s ridiculous notion that airline deregulation has been a disaster.

    Peter Reply:

    it certainly puts paid to Robert’s ridiculous notion that airline deregulation has been a disaster.

    Well, what has happened with the airline industry since deregulation?

    In exchange for “lower” airfares, you now pay fees for food on the flight, you pay fees to check bags (one airline even charges for carry-ons), the weight you can put in your checked bags has lessened, pilots have lost their pensions in exchange for keeping their jobs… And the list goes on.

    Greater competition has pushed most airlines to slash expenses in an attempt to remain competitive. They’ve been operating on razor-thin margins for years. Rising fuel prices over the next few years could in fact push many of them over the brink.

    Oh yeah, deregulation has been great.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    And people routinely choose lower fares over higher service, indicating their preference for low fares over high service. Baggage fees are a relatively new occurrence and linked to the rising oil prices while competition for low fares remains. There probably needs to be a bit more consolidation in the industry before such fees go away.

    Peter Reply:

    I’m not saying that lower fares are bad, I’m just saying they’re part of the problem that airlines are experiencing these days.

    J. Wong Reply:

    “And people routinely choose lower fares over higher service”

    Oh, really? For example, $90 LA to NY on a bus, 3 days versus $300 LA to NY on a plane, 5 hours?

    (The numbers are pulled from a hat; the point is that people will pay for service so lower fares cannot be the be-all-end-all.)

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Gosh, if only it was inherently implied in my statement I was referring to service differentiated in terms of service quality and price, rather than inherently different modes. For crying out loud, do I really need to include a full on disclaimer with every comment I make? For that matter, if you include the monetary value of time, then yes, the fare for air service is lower (unless your marginal time value is less than three dollars per hour; studies put the self-selected value from $45-60/hr I believe), which is why you see people choosing the more fiscally more expensive option; the speed makes the effective fare lower than the alternative.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    If no one cares about service why is there coach, business class and first class. Some airlines even have “coach plus” which is someplace between business class and coach.
    …. first class is really nice btw.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    And those get the people who are willing to pay extra for higher service (or willing to have their employers pay extra). Most people, however, prefer the lowest possible fares and so coach service has steadily dropped alongside coach fares.

    Nathanael Reply:

    “Prefer”? Most people can’t afford anything more expensive than the lowest possible fares, thanks to the fact that real median wages in the US haven’t risen in 40 years (and have actually been going down lately).

    That’s the elephant in the room here.

    Drunk Engineer Reply:

    For example, $90 LA to NY on a bus, 3 days versus $300 LA to NY on a plane, 5 hours?

    Greyhound.com quotes me a price of $223 for NY-LA
    Expedia.com quotes me $200 for the same trip

    Risenmessiah Reply:

    Actually, I studied if air deregulation failed for a project in grad school. I’d be happy to share it with anyone interested to see the data.

    Basically, deregulation has failed. In 2005, when the economy was not in recession at all, only seven airports have more than two carriers serving a destination. The problem is that airlines collude through codesharing. That effectively eliminates what people think of as competition.

    Prices are lower in real terms, but scale is also larger and labor costs have been flat.

    What should happen is that two major airlines should have a monopoly on short range flights. Deregulation should stay for the other, longer and international flights. These regional monopolies could even own and run the nation’s HSR systems as well.

    Such a policy though, faces stiff resistance from a national legislature as parochial as ours.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Can you please explain what you mean when you say that “only seven airports have more than two carriers serving a destination”?

    Also, I’d love to see the data.

    Risenmessiah Reply:

    Only seven of the thirty largest us airports had more than two carriers serving a destination. In other words, of the thirty, only seven airports had at least one destination with more than token deregulation (two carriers).

    I’m on the road today Alon, but I will gladly send thefileslater this week to any destination you want.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Thanks in advance! Go to my blog’s about page; my email is there.

  5. Dan
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 07:37
    #5

    Clearly you didn’t do much flying back in the days before deregulation of the airline industry. IMHO, things are MUCH better now.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    It was expensive but it wasn’t a bus with wings. Though on the whole for short trips that are too long to drive I’d rather take the bus.

    D. P. Lubic Reply:

    Somebody has the idea that things were better in the old days; certainly the music was better.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFPxyTEcJXU

  6. Drunk Engineer
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 09:28
    #6

    High-speed rail in California using Public/Private partnership is good.
    High-speed rail on the NEC using Public/Private partnership is baaaaad.

    This blog is utterly ridiculous.

    Spokker Reply:

    Not everybody here believes rail can or should attract private investment. I want to know what private entity invested in the 500 foot wide I-5 near my home.

    We don’t need private investment. Let’s pretend we value transportation infrastructure and build a damn railroad.

    synonymouse Reply:

    http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-econ-forecast-20110615,0,3144669.story

    Future growth in California is coming back to the coastal area, where most of the jobs are. The CHSRA needs to shed its San Joaquin Valley-centric mentality and get back to a bare-bones fast but cheap north-south concept. Ergo Tejon-I-5.

    Similarly San Jose is overrated with a rising murder rate and PAMPA the one performing better. The nimbuy’s must be doing something right. And let’s be iconoclastic about iconic Diridon and **** Pacheco. Allez Altamont!

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Sorry, but San Jose is actually fairly important. Trips between BUR/LAX/ONT/SNA and San Jose’s airport amount to 2.14 million trips per year. San Diego adds another 636,000 per year to the mix. In terms of total intrastate air travel between current CAHSR cities, San Jose is about 20% of the mix. That’s worth putting a station there for.

    California intrastate air travel and high speed rail

    synonymouse Reply:

    A Caltrain or BART station.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Neither Caltrain nor BART have any plans to directly connect with Los Angeles last I checked. Although you never know with BART. Either way, you’re not likely to try and sway those travelers onto HSR if they have to take a connecting train in SF and make it a 3.5-4 hour trip. Even going up the I-5 route, there’s no reason not to directly stop in San Jose en passant to San Francisco.

    synonymouse Reply:

    I would proceed directly to SFO via Dumbarton via of course Altamont. Let Caltrain or BART have Pacheco.

    Drunk Engineer Reply:

    In terms of total intrastate air travel between current CAHSR cities, San Jose is about 20% of the mix.

    Ahem. #2 on that list is….Oakland, which isn’t getting any HSR station at all.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Oakland is sufficiently close to SF that they can be served by a single station (and the airports serve the same population). San Jose is far enough to warrant a separate station.

    J. Wong Reply:

    Even better anyone choosing to use the Transbay Terminal for HSR instead of flying out of OAK will be able to take BART.

    Richard Mlynarik Reply:

    I honestly wonder if most of you people can locate the San Francisco Bay on a map, let alone know where to find “Oak-Land”.

    Taking BART transbay to the Transbay Terminal combines all of battling peak-hour peak-direction commuter crush-loading, non-convenient connection in SF (two blocks of extra walking credit) and riding in the wrong direction before you even get to the train platforms. In other words, it’s about as unrealistic and fanciful an idea as all of those that are bandied about here.

    Oakland Airport in comparison is a cake-walk from most of the East Bay, via BART or otherwise.

    Livermore BART/HSR on the other hand would offer an almost perfect solution. Zero transfer distance, completely uncrowded trains, comparable transit travel time. Except, oops, the highest and sole priority of PBQD in Northern California is to have HSR serve only Los Banos, not, under any circumstance, Fremont or Livermore.

    J. Wong Reply:

    Jeez, Richard, I live in SF so yes, I know how to find Oakland. And taking the shuttle from the Coliseum BART station to OAK is not a cake-walk. And of course, dealing with peak-hour traffic on the 880 is really nothing … not!

    Richard Mlynarik Reply:

    In other words, San José (the Capital of Silicon Valley, don’t you know) is just special.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Or it’s a major metro area currently an hours distance from SF and so a reasonably distinct population, thus worth a station stop. Oakland, by contrast, is simply on the other side of the Bay, has a quick and easy commute to the HSR station, and trying to put a station in both Oakland and SF doesn’t gain you any additional riders while adding complexity to the system.

    Drunk Engineer Reply:

    Oakland is sufficiently close to SF. San Jose is far enough to warrant a separate station.

    San Jose just as close to Palo Alto and to Fremont.

    Try again….

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    So delete them. Why do they have a stop anyhow?

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    Shhh, if they go for “any train any platform” they don’t need an “HSR” station, they’ll have on, it’s just that it will be called a “Caltrain Station”

    BruceMcF Reply:

    Regarding Fremont, yes, the choice is between Fremont and San Jose for a second all-services station in the Bay Area. Either a second station for the SF-Oakland urban area, or a station for the San Jose urban area. Since the SF-Oakland urban area is about twice the population of the San Jose urban area, that is a decision within +/- 5%, with all the noise and furor about which of the two is the + up to 5% and which of the two is the – up to 5%.

    You wouldn’t deliberately design the system to draw populations at and south of the neck of a peninsula up into the peninsula, so Redwood or, as a feasible alternative with the Pacheco alignment, Palo Alto, would not be an all-services station.

    Miles Bader Reply:

    It’s a tradeoff — you want to hit the most promising intermediate-station locations you can, while still keeping the routing reasonably sane. San Jose apparently meets that criteria, but Oakland does not.

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    The whole issue of getitng to Oakland is UP owns the ROWs and has told the Authority it cannot use its ROW. Unless the congressional delegation wants to try and buy the land from UP or rewrite the rules on eminent domain of freight lines, it is not happening.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Err, no. It’s only worth one station and legally it is required to be SF. Simple as that.

    Drunk Engineer Reply:

    Corridors eligible for funding under Prop 1a:

    (a) Sacramento to Stockton to Fresno
    (b) SF to SJ to Fresno
    (c) Oakland to San Jose
    (d) Fresno to Bakersfield to Palmdale to Los Angeles
    (e) LA to Riverside to San Diego
    (f) LA to Anaheim to Irvine
    (g) Merced to Stockton to Oakland and SF via Altamont

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    Prop 1A also requires that it connect the SF Transbay Terminal to LAUS. Oakland may be a permissibly funded station and corridor, but it isn’t worth a station if you are already connecting in SF, not a sufficiently large benefit.

    Drunk Engineer Reply:

    Paulus:
    Prop 1A permits an SF Terminus by way of Altamont alignment. The East Bay region can be well served by HSR, even if trains don’t terminate in Oakland itself.

    Peter Reply:

    Are you guys still going to be debating Altamont vs. Pacheco when the project has been completed (via Pacheco)?

    Joey Reply:

    Well, we’re still debating the specifics of BART’s implementation.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    Wander over to railroad.net sometime. They are arguing over whether or not the Erie and the DL&W could have survived as a profitable railroad if they had merged after the hurricanes of 1955. They will be arguing that until 2255 or so. They are going to arguing Altamont versus Pacheco until well after the third Transbay Tube is built.

    Spokker Reply:

    “Are you guys still going to be debating Altamont vs. Pacheco when the project has been completed (via Pacheco)?”

    Why not? With every mistake we must surely be learning.

    tony d. Reply:

    I’m sorry Robert, but this has to be the most idiotic post put forth by syno.
    $an Jo$e and $ilicon Valley will get their HSR via Pacheco whether you like it or not.

    Peter Reply:

    Nah, it’s about as dumb as his others.

    VBobier Reply:

    Agreed.

    BruceMcF Reply:

    Express High Speed Rail in the Northeast could be either good or bad, depending on the details of the business model. If the House Republicans are pushing for a one of the bad ones that privatize profits and socialize risks, pointlessly increasing capital cost in the process of hiding capital cost in income guarantees to corporations borrowing at higher rates on capital markets … that would be bad.

    Nathanael Reply:

    How you do the public-private partnership matters. Mica and the House Republicans proposed stupid, cost-inflating, rent-seeking, troublemaking ways of doing it. CHSRA… well, it hasn’t proposed a specific way yet.

  7. thatbruce
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 09:46
    #7

    @Robert:
    I wasn’t able to actually find the report or the statement on the Amtrak website, so I can’t actually comment on the substance.

    This article could have waited until you had read through the report.

    Paulus Magnus Reply:

    But then we wouldn’t have the irony of a liberal using the example of Lysenko against conservatives.

    Robert Cruickshank Reply:

    Maybe.

  8. Alon Levy
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 13:29
    #8

    Robert, here’s a three-week old article about the same subject. Note that the article says that “Many reviewers also said Amtrak ridership estimates were too low and several major operators indicated there are construction cost reduction opportunities that could reduce the capital investment.”

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    What are the reviewers looking for? A new NEC HSR line should be open before 2030. Would it help if another government entity owned the new NEC HSR line and managed the construction and put out operations for bidding?

    Alon Levy Reply:

    I don’t know. The reviewers seem to have reviewed the item-by-item cost estimates and the ridership projections. They didn’t review the soundness of the choice of which items to include, but did note opportunities for cost reductions (I don’t know which, but I have some guesses).

    It might help if a new government entity ran the new NEC HSR proposal. It depends on the details of who’s staffing it, what access it gets to the existing NEC, what deals it’s allowed to strike with Metro-North and the MBTA, and what reforms are made on the FRA side. But those exact same details crop up with the option of putting a heavily reformed Amtrak in charge. I personally think that those questions are far more important than whether the line is designed privately, by Amtrak, or by another public entity.

    BruceMcF Reply:

    If the results of the peer review is that the Amtrak conclusion of positive cost benefit is sound because they likely underestimated ridership and likely overestimated required cost, so the Amtrak cost-benefit is conservative on each side, that suggests that the peer review found the NG proposal to be overengineered.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    I’m sorry, but did the peer review say anything about the benefits? All I see Amtrak claim is that the peer review signed off on the ridership. The benefits include a lot of calculations with congestion, economic development, and other positive externalities.

    D. P. Lubic Reply:

    I’m not going to say the FRA isn’t a problem, nor that Amtrak is perfect–but the conservative approach being made by the reviewers, which seems to point out a conservative approach from Amtrak itself (particularly in regard to the ridership figures), suggest a good case for a new Northeastern route, and also suggest Amtrak is not as much a bunch of idiots as some would say.

    In fact, I would repeat what I’ve said before, that given the constraints Amtrak has had to work with, they have done a decent job. Could it be better? Of course. Could other management teams have done better, in particular could other management teams have done a better job at getting things out of Congress, like more money for upgrades and even more equipment? Maybe–and maybe not. Recall the problems David Gunn had–and why–and what happened to him.

    And Gunn was not alone–I’ve been in contact with a former Amtrak board member, and a Republican at that, who was not renewed for his board position despite a long history of involvement in railroads, a long history of being a patriot and successful businessman, because he would not go along with the Republican Amtrak cuts, nor the flawed privatization schemes.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Look, you’re missing the point. The ridership estimates are very conservative – I said so back when Amtrak released the proposal. What’s not conservative in Amtrak’s proposal is the set of segments and projects included under the rubric of HSR. Many have marginal importance for speed or capacity: Gateway, Charles Center, Market East, Grand Central, tunnels through Westchester. Amtrak just included a list of every commuter project it thought the local boosters wanted, plus a few more projects to make sure it never has to deal with commuter railroads (God forbid that it go for organization before concrete). For a good takedown of Market East, by itself 10% of the project’s cost, see here.

    Northeastern HSR is a great idea; Amtrak’s specific proposal is not.

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    Does having a station at Market East really help HSR? This would be like digging a new New York station just for HSR. If 30th St. has enough atachment to metro transit and future transit, you might as well keep it there and save the money.

    Joey Reply:

    It doesn’t add much. It’s a little more centrally located than 30th Street, but the existing station is already a major transit hub and you would only save a few minutes by tunneling through the city.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    30th Street is connected to all commuter lines and to the Market-Frankford Line, just like Market East; it is also connected to the subway-surface lines. Market East is more centrally located and closer to PATCO and the Broad Street Subway, but is not directly on either.

    The time saving from Market East is trivial – it’s about 1:50 relative to using the legacy line and switching to the Airport Line. The Amtrak route is 3.5 km shorter than the legacy route, and avoids a few curves, but at a running speed of 200 km/h, it’s not a huge deal.

    To put things in perspective, Amtrak is not fixing the S-curve in Metuchen, and its runtime simulation has trains slowing down to 160 km/h there. Relatively simple straightening could raise that to 240 km/h; that’s 35 seconds of runtime right there that Amtrak is forgoing. (And that’s with the super-powered N700-I; the less powered the train is, the more time is lost to a single slowdown.)

    political_incorrectness Reply:

    If it isn’t much of a ridership boost for only 1:50 in time savings, it would be better spent correcting the S curve to 30th St.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    Poor Elizabeth with it’s 55 MPH curve is always forgotten and forlorn. . .

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Amtrak’s speed profile suggests that it will straighten Elizabeth, but not Metuchen. Elizabeth is tighter, but also requires more takings to straighten completely.

    BruceMcF Reply:

    That’s the other half of what makes it conservative, as a cost-benefit analysis ~ it understates the likely benefit and overstates the required cost.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Um, no. You don’t understand. Amtrak isn’t just including extra contingency, which is what being conservative means; it’s proposing projects that are entirely unnecessary, which is being extravagant. Amtrak did the equivalent of proposing to build the tracks out of 22 carat gold and budgeting accordingly.

  9. Donk
    Jun 14th, 2011 at 16:47
    #9

    OT: Reporting from Korea: Just took the “new” KTX high speed rail system from Seoul to the south of the country yesterday. It is around 2.5 hours for the entire route, with the southernmost chunk to Busan just opening up in late 2010.

    Pretty smooth ride, but there are still some slow sections that run on older track through the major cities. Apparently they are currently working on building new track through Daejeon and Daegu, so the full route should be finished with under 2hr run times from Busan to Seoul by 2014.

  10. swing hanger
    Jun 17th, 2011 at 06:13
    #10

    Trade publication Railway Age tears apart Rep. Mica’s NEC privitization bill:

    http://www.railwayage.com/breaking-news/mica-shuster-eye-passenger-rail-competition-3234.html

    VBobier Reply:

    I can see a motivation for Repugs going after HSR and Amtrak, Koch Industries sells Jet Fuel, Among other things and Amtrak could be hurting the Kochs sales of Jet Fuel most likely in the NEC, It all comes down to money and campaign contributions last I looked is money. If Amtrak is hurting the Kochs profits I say Too bad, So sad, NOT. Koch Industries needs to be broken up and sold off to their competitors, As their too big for their britches.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Yeah, totally. It’s “all too complicated.” And the people in charge of the privatization plan aren’t real railroaders, and refer to Amtrak as “they” instead of “it” and use the word “incentivize.” And anyway Amtrak works just fine, and to add 2 extra tph would require doubling the number of mainline tracks. Yeah, baby: concrete always, electronics maybe, organization never.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    add 2 extra tph would require doubling the number of mainline tracks.

    To eight? The only severe bottleneck is in an out of Penn Station in NY. In the short term there’s plenty of capacity. Ya wanna make NY-Philadelphia 30 minutes there might be problems with all thos pesky NJTransit expresses making stops every few miles.

    Alon Levy Reply:

    Don’t laugh at me, I’m just the messenger. The article is the place where it’s stated Amtrak would need twice as many mainline tracks.

    Nathanael Reply:

    One presumes they mean from Newark to New York. Where Amtrak needs twice as many mainline tracks.

    adirondacker12800 Reply:

    Odd that Amtrak isn’t proposing them. Page 8 of the Harbor Ops Presentation

    http://www.portalbridgenec.com/library.html

    If I’m reading the map correctly traffic from the former DL&W lines, the current Morris and Essex lines and the Montclair Boonton line, would be diverted off the NEC. So yes there would be two new tracks but they wouldn’t be tracks on the NEC. Since the study is only concerned with the bridges who knows what goes on at Secaucus.

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