Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Asian HSR Connection
Arnold Schwarzenegger flew to Asia this week for a “trade mission” that will focus heavily on high speed rail. (Already the trip has generated one of the most memorable tweets I’ve seen in a long time.) The Central Valley Business Times has a good overview of the trip:
Leading multiple delegations of business leaders, the groups are to visit China, Japan and South Korea, which are, respectively, California’s fourth, third and fifth largest trading partners.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is hoping to find willing Asian investors, ready to sink money into the state’s long-proposed high-speed passenger train system, his office says….
High-speed rail will be a priority for Mr. Schwarzenegger in Asia, his office says. China, Japan and South Korea all have advanced high-speed rail systems. The governor will ride each of them and meet with top officials from each country’s transportation ministry.
Joining the governor on the trip are officials from the California High Speed Rail Authority, the Bay Area Council, and the California Chamber of Commerce. There are other items on the trip’s agenda, but HSR is clearly a centerpiece.
The group is riding an HSR train from Nanjing to Shanghai and will ride the KTX bullet train in South Korea with that country’s president. They’ll be meeting with JR East officials in Japan, and presumably will ride the Shinkansen there.
The trip deepens the important Asian connection for California high speed rail. The state has plenty of money to build its HSR system itself, but a political decision has been made to leave that money in the hands of the rich, so instead the state is going to look to the federal government and “private investors” – which as I’ve argued before will likely take the form of sovereign countries – to help fund the entire project.
China is the key player here. With an economy heavily dependent on exports to the United States, they are in the position to the US that the US was to Europe at the end of World War II – needing to rebuild their overseas markets. The US did this with a Marshall Plan, funding the reconstruction of Western Europe and thus creating the consumer demand for American-made products that contributed to the postwar economic boom. China may have realized it will need to do the same thing.
As this blog explained back in April, there’s quite a debate between Chinese and Japanese HSR operators about which system is better for California. This trip isn’t likely to settle that debate, but clearly China has been busily lobbying the governor’s office and the CHSRA. For the sake of the HSR project, let’s hope they haven’t just been lobbying the outgoing governor, but also key members of the state legislature and the two gubernatorial candidates as well.
If any actual news is made on the Asian HSR trip, this blog will certainly let you know.

Adrian Moore BS….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C4mDW4olvw
D. P. Lubic Reply:
September 10th, 2010 at 11:05 pm
This comes back to a question I’ve had for a long time. . .how do these people get paid to lie and misrepresent things? We here at least attempt to tell the truth with the best of what ability we have.
They get good money for being bad, while we are good for nothing. . .(again, with apologies to Red Skelton. . .)
Ben Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 6:04 am
Here’s how these hacks at Reason Foundation Inc and Exxon Mobil/Cato get paid to lie every chance they get. Billionaires such as the Koch brothers and the very largest corporations give hundreds of millions of dollars to fund these right-wing PR firms/’think tanks.’
People need to learn about the billionaires and the very largest corporations behind the phony populist tea party, the Yes on Prop 23 campaign, and the effort to discredit high speed rail.
Covert Operations–The billionaire brothers who are waging a war against Obama.
By Jane Mayer
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer
Ben Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 6:06 am
And thanks to the John Roberts, Inc. Citizens’ United Supreme Court decision, these oil companies can give unlimited donations to federal candidates. Most of us, on the other hand, are left to posting on blogs such as this to try to influence people.
Ken Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 9:45 am
True, but the same USSC decision can work for HSR supporters as well: the recent decision allowed foreign investors to lobby directly to Congress. Well, foreign investors can mean French, German, Japanese, Korean, and Chinese HSR companies.
YesonHSR Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 9:45 am
Nothing a few Billion cant do!! we are on our way back to the robber barron days again in American..the radical media comment was funny as these creeps and others like them are buying all the media up to run their propaganda machine..As if having well funded think tanks was not enough..just look at there nonstop attacks on HSR
D. P. Lubic Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
I’ve been observing this, and just thought to comment upon it–I may be wrong, but somehow it seems to me our opponents do not seem to be able to laugh. Now, not everybody here does so, but I’ve tried to put in a bit of humor and reflection now and then, just for fun. Jimsf, in another post, brought up a caboose photo, partially as a reaction to what is sometimes the interminable grumbling about Bechtel and Parsons-Brickerhoff, and I do appreciate Yes On’s “Nothing a few billion can’t do!!” above. Yet, most of what we see in oppositon comments essentially involves badmouthing rail people and calling us names. (OK, I did say one poster here needed to take his liver pills, but that could be intended as much an admonition to lighten up as anything else.) I had some posts to the Palo Alto online site, clearly stating from the outset that I was an outsider, and I was essentially told I didn’t know anything–maybe I’m a bit ignorant of Palo Alto, but I’m not too much so about railroads, or America in general.
Either the opposition is very scared, or they take themselves too seriously.
P.S.: Re: Wendell Cox: I have a contact in Chicago who is in the passenger rail advocacy biz there, and he has said Wendell Cox has “lost it” ever since an extension of the St. Louis light rail line was built in his neighborhood. . .I don’t know what he meant by that, but I have noticed that Cox sounds more and more ridiculous of late (last couple of years or so); before, he just sounded arrogant and misinformed, now, well, he’s different somehow, can’t quite put my finger on it, but it’s there.
Has anybody else noticed this? And of course, Robert has noticed that Randall O’Toole seems a little strange, too.
Alon Levy Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
D. P., you should bear in mind the opposition consists of a couple of distinct sets.
First, there’s the anti-rail set, including Cox and O’Toole, who think the ideal train is one that runs on rubber tires, is sized for just 5 passengers, and requires one of the passengers to continuously pilot it from line to line. Morris Brown and Martin Engel are fellow travelers, but are not nearly as extreme; they’re against CAHSR, whereas the right-wing thinktank people haven’t met a rail line anywhere in the world that they liked.
Second, there are the NIMBYs. Those just don’t want any change to their neighborhoods. There’s literature on this – I could dig up for you a paper I read a while ago that posits that NIMBYism functions as social insurance against declines in property values.
And third, there’s Richard Mlynarik, plus a few other the-HSRA-are-morons people, like Drunk Engineer. Not coincidentally, Richard is a European railfan, and DE is a fan of how the Netherlands and Denmark have built bicycle lanes; both complain that the US is not imitating Europe well.
On the Peninsula, the second group predominates. The local opposition has barely included standard anti-spending tropes, used all over the rest of the US, and doesn’t have the technical sophistication to complain about the Transbay bottleneck problem; it focuses on perceived neighborhood impact, mistrust of the HSRA, and similar issues common to community-against-hierarchy fights.
Spokker Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 12:28 am
I knew it was “over budget” but is it behind schedule now?
Ken Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 9:43 am
What’s preventing us from lining up like minded corporations to create our own bigger, louder lobby to silence out critics of HSR? If they have the oilcos, we just need to line up electric cos. If they have billionaires, we just need to line up the Chinese, Japanese, Korean, French and German companies. If it’s a war they want, war it is. We need a bigger and stronger interest group rather than sit here with each other on some board jabbering this and that.
Spokker Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
And then you become what you despise…
dave Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
Fight fire with Fire!
Alon Levy Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 5:37 pm
Of the big players in transit – construction companies, contractors, construction unions, rolling stock manufacturers – very few are invested just in transit. The people who do construction will build anything, which is why you see a lot of lobbying for infrastructure in general but not for rail in particular. The rolling stock vendors sell a variety of goods, many of which are quite polluting. The only vendor that specializes in trains is Bombardier, which is too small to endow a large
hackhousethinktank by itself.Nathanael Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
Though Bombardier *has* been putting in small grants and endowments for transportation researchers and professors.
Alon Levy Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
True. It also has a pathetic little thinktank, which doesn’t even try to look like more than corporate marketing. Reason and Cato actually do a pretty good job of looking like scholarship; this thing doesn’t.
jimsf Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
I’d love to line up some some large corporations and get them to do stuff… lets see, so far I have the toll free numbers for… comcast and pge customer service. I’ll volunteer to make the first two calls.
Alon Levy Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Why does Comcast care about HSR?
jimsf Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
uh, I was joking… as in, clearly a handful of bloggers are not going to be lining up big corporations and getting them to do anything..
meanwhile, I did find this interesting documentary about a pre hsr pre maglev concept from france that was killed by politics.
jimsf Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
killed
adirondacker12800 Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 11:34 pm
nah, what killed it was that it guzzled fuel. That and the track would have been awfully expensive.
Andre Peretti Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 5:38 am
It was killed by the first oil crisis, as was TGV-01. The prototype TGV was an EMU (all wheels powered) whose electricity was produced by a turbo engine coupled to an alternator.
France was almost totally oil-dependent at the time and the crisis really hurt everyone. So, the decision to switch from oil to nuclear was very popular and voted by all parties. The anti-nuclears were perceived as de-facto allies of the oil sheikhs.
All the new projects, including total rail electrification, were presented under the clever slogan “In France we have no oil but we have ideas”, which made opponents appear both unpatriotic and brainless.
Victor Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:28 am
I like that “In France we have no oil but we have ideas” nice, Here It could read “In the USA we have very little oil but we have ideas”, How’s that?
jimsf Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 9:04 am
In america its more like– “drill baby drill we have to drive at all costs and will destroy our environment going after oil, that we are too ignorant to realize goes on the global market anyway cuz it isn’t really ours and we know things aren’t working but we sure aren’t going to change anything either but instead just stick our heads in the sand and kick and scream louder and hope it all magically works out — that’s what it is in america.
YesonHSR Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 10:57 am
since the early 1980s and Regan all major goverment projects regarding transportaion have been looked on as “spending” my tax dollars..The USA public at one time was very pro- construction for major projects..now the teabags and Nimbys scream about every little thing and the media casts them as good and construction as bad ..ie boondoogle as we hear all the time for the naysayers
Drunk Engineer Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 8:45 pm
The CAHSR has been in “planning” stages for decades. And now that real money is finally made available, what does the CHSRA say? The “dog ate my homework”.
Spokker Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
What do you mean?
What did they say that implies “dog ate my homework?”
Drunk Engineer Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 10:21 am
It means CHSRA (and Caltrain) have had 1+ decade to plan the project, but have little to show for their efforts.
When the stimulus funding came along, the project should have been “shovel-ready” from the get go.
Peter Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 10:25 am
So, you would have preferred them to have completed all the planning at a time when no one would have given any input into what at the time was seen as a “vaporware” project?
Drunk Engineer Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
In the case of Caltrain, definitely not vaporware as the agency has had money in the bank for electrification, downtown terminal, and even new Bay crossing (albeit funds got “loaned” to BART).
In the case of CHSRA, the Legislature always provided funds as requested by the agency for doing planning and environmental work. Given the time and money made available, the agency should have delivered a finished product (i.e. ready-to-go project). It is hardly unprecedented for agencies to complete preliminary engineering work before getting the funding — otherwise, what’s the point of paying planners the big bucks?
Peter Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
I don’t have the time to do the research to counter your first statement regarding Caltrain.
However, I CAN counter your argument that CHSRA should by now have had a completed project ready to go. Given the gigantic effort they have had to go to since 2008 to complete the planning, insinuating that they could have completed it earlier is naive. This is the largest public works project that California has ever undertaken. The planning alone requires a large amount of funding. The Authority was given a pittance all the way through 2008. There’s no way they could have completed all the project-level planning before then. That it “is hardly unprecedented for agencies to complete preliminary engineering work before getting the funding” doesn’t mean that it could or would work every time. Especially not here.
Drunk Engineer Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
13 years is plenty of time to do project-level planning.
Peter Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 4:09 pm
You show me a project of similar size, with similar statutory framework (CEQA & NEPA) that went from zero to shovel-ready within less than 13 years, and then you might have an argument. Throw in starvation funding for at least one year (when they were about to start project-level planning) and the length of time it has taken makes sense.
Victor Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 4:47 pm
@ Drunk Engineer: If there had been enough funding, Sure 13 years would have been enough time, But Repugnicans in Sacramento have screamed and hollered to keep as much funding from going them as possible.
Richard Mlynarik Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 4:47 pm
A competent agency has a prioritized list of projects ready to go — at various degrees of readiness depending on their position on the priority list — should magic funding materialise via tooth fairy visitation.
In contrast, the grossly, grossly, unequivocally, inexcusably, world-beating, egregiously incompetent and unprofessional, crucifixion-worthy sub-cretins at Caltrain, were able to offer … a grotesquely misconceived grade separation San Bruno and … nothing else.
Everybody on the payroll of Caltrain richly deserves to die in a fire.
Alon Levy Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
I’m not going to defend anything Caltrain has done. But the most difficult portions of the project are the mountain crossings, especially the LA-Bakersfield segment. Those can’t be done as anything other than HSR, and can’t be done gradually. Thus they really were vaporware until November 2008.
Drunk Engineer Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
The size and scope of the project is mainly due to choices made by the authority, and not due to any engineering requirements. CHSRA made the choice to throw out all the work done by the previous high-speed rail commission, the choice to route high-speed trains through 50 miles of Peninsula suburbs, the choice to build 60′ aerial straight through center of Fresno, the choice to try to acquire unobtainable UP ROW, the choice to run all trains to poorly designed SF terminal, etc, etc. Perhaps given those constraints, then, yes 13 years is reasonable time — but totally unreasonable if the goal is to complete a uesful project within reasonable time and budget.
Peter Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Hello? Those have nothing to do with the size of the project. With size I’m referring to a the distances involved and the need to cross two sets of mountains.
The challenges you’re referring to are no different than what would have to be done if they had chosen Altamont over Pacheco. Instead we’d be hearing from NIMBYs in Fremont, Pleasanton, and Livermore right now, not PAMPA.
How does connecting to an admittedly poorly-designed Transbay Terminal mean that the porject takes longer than it would have to a better-designed one?
Nathanael Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
No credit to Caltrain “planners”, but the fact is that the CHRSA literally was not given the money for planning during several years. I followed it as it happened. You, Drunk Engineer, are simply mistaken.
13 years is only a little longer than the typical lead time for any major project these days, what with Environmental Impact Statements (which are a good thing even if they sometime goes too far in the name of parking). Look up the lead time on the North Carolina rail projects, or the Washington State rail projects. A decade is *normal*.
You want something outside rail? Look up the lead time on the sewage treatment plant designs and CSO elimination designs for Boston, New York, Chicago, and elsewhere.
“[China is] in the position to the US that the US was to Europe at the end of World War II – needing to rebuild their overseas markets”
At the end of WW II, Europe was physically destroyed by years of brutal bombings, artillery bombardments, an entire generation of young men killed etc. The US is in a deep recession right now but let’s keep things in proportion. China isn’t going to offer up a modern equivalent of the Marshall Plan because it doesn’t need to. It is already propping up the US by purchasing large quantities of Treasury bonds and, there is still massive private wealth in the US.
wu ming Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 9:38 am
as paul krugman pointed out yesterday, china isn’t so much propping the US up by buying treasuries so much as keeping our currency high relative to theirs. they buy lots of japanese and other competitors’ bonds for a similar purpose.
rafael Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 11:27 am
Right, so the net effect is that the US currency has more purchasing power on the world market than it otherwise would have. If China were to stop purchasing US Treasury bonds, interest rates on them would go up and the US would be less able to finance its huge structural deficits (a.k.a. living above its means). This would have knock-on effects on other types of dollar-denominated debt. For China, the risk is that the US could decide to default on bonds that country already holds and, that US governments, businesses and consumers would be less able to afford products manufactured in China.
However, as Europe and especially, other Asian nations expand their volume of trade with China, there is less and less need to prop up the US dollar. Unlike e.g. Japan or Saudi Arabia, China does not depend on the US for its national defense. The Middle Kingdom may not have the luxury of walking away from the table right now, but that could change in the next decade or so. The US is skating on thin ice if it thinks China will continue buying US Treasuries at the current low yields forever.
Peter Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 2:24 pm
But funding CA HSR is pocket change for one of the world’s largest economies, where most of the wealth is concentrated in the government.
YesonHSR Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 6:17 pm
Its pocket change for ours too!! its just not a big priorty and is attacked as boondoogy by the right wing types..the AIG bailout was 90 billion and read somewhere we might get “stuck” with 12 -15 billion of that…and thats the amount we have to claw and hope and beg for the project…ya just want to scream!
Peter Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Yeah, but they’re a lot more likely to offer the funding than our government is.
Missiondweller Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
Good point. We spent $820 Billion on stimulus. That would have bought a whole lot of HSR.
Nathanael Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:33 pm
A disturbing amount of the recently spent money went to pointless tax cuts for people who didn’t need them.
More importantly, far too much went into the rathole of the banks — this is mostly Bush’s TARP, but it’s still money down a rathole.
Matthew F. Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 10:02 pm
40% went directly to tax cuts, 20% more went to pad states’ budgets, to prevent them from having to raise taxes or cut services – in essence, nearly 2/3rds was tax cuts.
morris brown Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 6:19 am
How Robert could come up with this statement is amazing. Comparing the US or California to Europe at the end of WWII makes no sense and has no credibility.
He certainly isn’t going to win any support for this project by portraying California being in the same situation as Europe was at then end of WWII.
Victor Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Well unless You have a better comparison or a better example, Then I’d stop right there, Sure It’s not perfect, But outside no damage from a War, The economy is in bad shape, Just not bombed to the Stone Age. Of course there are a few Java Men/Women who scream NO to this and NO to that, But then those troglodytes I think are still living in the Stone Age & would rather not leave. And No I won’t insult the Neanderthals as they don’t deserve that, As most people alive today are 1-4% Neanderthal(some even have big thick brow ridges too).
jimsf Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Its the “do nothing” right wing in california that would have us believe that california has indeed been destroyed and in dire need of overhaul. Of course they have to act that way since they don’t have any real ideas and can’t get anyone to vote for them without using fear and demagoguery to browbeat people into electing them. Its the “right” all over cali and the US who would have us believe we are in failure, that we are afraid and uncertain, and who does what they can to perpetuate this message of fear. Its republican “leaders” ( liars) get get up on television each day and tell us how bad it all is and how its all going to get much worse. They look into the camera and outright lie through their slimey, smirking faces in a shameless and disgusting display of political self interest trumping national interest. Personally, I wouldn’t let one in my house and probably spit on one on the street. Especially that smarmy slime ball Boehner.
D. P. Lubic Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
I won’t comment on California itself, as I don’t live there. I will say the Repugnant Ones have essentially lost my vote here in West Virginia, and this is speaking as an idependent who has never voted a straight ticket.
Jim says he doesn’t think California and the nation have been totally ruined yet. I don’t think so either, but I would argue we are pretty close to it, and I would also argue that this is because both parties have never been serious about energy independence, and have never been serious about oil dependence. Part of this has been generational (as discussed previously), and part of it has been cowardice (politicians who do not want to challenge the electorate to a higher standard, or a change of lifestyle that in this case means deemphasising cars, because they are afraid they will lose their nice jobs if they do.) This change has been necessary in my opionion since the first oil crunch in 1973. It has only gotten worse since then.
In recent years the Democrats seem to be gradually coming around (the initial $8 billion for HSR last year would have been unthinkable until Obama came in), and the recent infrastructure bank would likewise have been unimaginable under a Republican administration. They have since gotten cold feet about deficits, but I think the case can be made that we need to run deficits to get out of the physical fix we are in, which in many ways is reminiscent of WW II. I’m referring to how we are essentially vulnerable to energy disruptions because we rely too much on cars and trucks, and we do not have enough alternatives. Expense was not object in WWII, because national survival was at stake. I think we are in or close to such a state now, and on top of that, our dependence feeds our enemies.
What do we get from the Repugnant Ones? We get “drill, baby, drill.” I forget the exact breakdown of how much oil is where (i.e., off shore vs. ANWR), but I do recall the total figure was estimated to be 79 billion barrels (bbs). We currently use 7 bbs per year, which means, if we cut off all imports and ran on our own (and assuming this figure is correct and there are no other changes), we would use it all up in 17 years. What would we do in year 18?
On top of this, the bulk of the oil consumption in this country–65%–is used for transportation. About 48% is for gasoline alone, and the trucking industry consumes about 6% in diesel fuel (rail, air, and water account for another 6% each). This means that 54% of of our oil consumption is for motor fuel; our highway system is our Achilles heel. Al Gore was right, the internal-combustion automobile has to go, or at least be very much deemphasised, although not for the reasons he suggested.
Again, what do we get from the Repugnant Ones? “Amtrak costs too much,” “people will never give up the freedom of the personal car,” “the market must decide” (this last one is particularly laughable, considering how the “transportation market” is such a rigged game with all those hidden subsidies out there, including the costs of what amounts to a couple of oil wars).
I’m even steamed at the Repugnant Ones for their talk of “lower taxes” and “less government regulation.” Now, I’m not one for excessive taxation, and regulations can cause problems and increase costs, but ideally, everybody will be working under the same rules, and so that shouldn’t matter too much. I will rely on the “testimony” of a friend of mine who used to work for the US Park Service in Harpers Ferry, W.Va.
Kyle was one of the rangers in Harpers Ferry who dressed in Civil War era clothes to tell stories about Hapers Ferry and the John Brown raid, the effect being to enhance the feel of being back in the 19th century.
An aside, just for fun: I once ran into Kyle at a pizza place in nearby Charles Town, W.Va. (Charles Town is named for Charles Washington, brother of George Washington, and would be the site of John Brown’s trial and execution, dramatized in the play and film, “The Anvil;” many years later, the same rooms in the same courthouse would be the the site of the trials of mine labor union leaders in the early days of the United Mine Workers in the 1920s, which are mentioned in the postscript of the John Sayles’s film, “Matewan.”)
Kyle, dressed in his Civil War era garb, went to pay his bill, and the girl behind the counter asked him, “Sir, do you know where we can find some vintage clothing? We’d like to have a fifties night here.”
Kyle replied, “Aw, gee, I don’t know anything about vintage clothes, I just wear these, I just work in these.”
To which I added, “Kyle, Kyle, you’re in fifties clothes now–the 1850s! You’re only off by 100 years!”
Back to our original direction–Kyle told me that Harpers Ferry was a boom town in 1859. This was due to a government-fun armory (musket factory, which was the object of John Brown’s raid) in which the skilled employees of the plant were making wages on the order of $30 a month at a time when the average American farmer had a cash income of only $125 for a whole year. That was a lot of money flowing into Harpers Ferry, and a lot of businessmen opened up places to try to get some of it. These included bakeries, pharmacies, boot shops, dry goods shops, and other places, including lots and lots of saloons. The business situation was very competitive; Kyle said the average life expectancy of a a business was only about 6 months.
Now, jumping ahead about 150 years to today, if you spoke with someone in the Small Business Administration at least until relatively recently, you would have been told that on average about 50% of all small business startups would fail in the first year, and up to 90% would fail in the first five. The first part of that statement works out to a 6-month life expectancy in 1859–and in 1859, there was no income tax, no sales tax, no minimum wage law, no overtime wage law, no child labor law, no Social Security tax, no Medicare tax, no building code, no health code, in short, “no nothing”–and the business failure rate was the same then as now, if not worse.
What this tells me is that success or failure in business relies more on the gifts and abilities of the management and a bit of luck in being in the right place at the right time. It also tells me that the Republican party, as an institution and in many of its current members, is ideologically blinded, almost if not to the point of delusion. Their failure to recognise real conditions makes them truly incompetent at best, and dangerous demagogues at worst.
I was registered as a Republican for 10 years, but I see no one from that party to vote for today, at least where I live.
At the same time, I don’t think anyone here thinks a Democratic monopoly is any good either, for the same reason monopolies are never good. For all these reasons, I think at the very least, we need a third party, and perhaps a fourth.
OK, OK, I’ll get down off my soapbox for now. . .and thanks for puting up with me. . .
Nathanael Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
Duverger’s Law will show you that unless we have electoral reform (still totally off the radar — personally I support proprortional representation for the legislature and approval voting for the Presidency) — any given district will have exactly two successful parties over the medium term.
Fixing the Republican Party seems hopeless, given that their leadership is bankrupt of ideas, completely insane, and loaded with fascists and theocrats.
Thus the only way to get a good, viable alternative to the Democratic Party is to make the Republican Party die stone cold dead, reduced to the status of the Whigs. As fast as possible. At that point an alternative party becomes immediately viable.
D. P. Lubic Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
Fascinating comment, considering the Republicans were themselves the successors to the Whigs following the Whigs’ self-destruction.
If I had to guess, China probably is looking for some sort of other infrastructure improvements to be part of their investment. Much as they might be happy to sell their technology, one would think they would want it to add to California’s logistic capacity at ports to help expedite more of its goods speeding quickly to the East Coast. Schwarzengger, meanwhile, is arguing the stability of California as a food exporter against China’s other trading partners, especially Africa.
I’d be amazed if the Chinese or Koreans took the bait given the impending election (and Schwarzengger being termed out.) The Japanese probably have a standing offer, but it’s probably not enough money (i.e. realistic) for what the Governor wants.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
September 11th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
Low priced commodity goods don’t need speed, they need low cost. Once the Panama Canal capacity improvements are done transhipping things on the West Coast so they can be delivered to Pittsburgh looks less attractive. Once the East Coast ports are upgraded to handle the higher volumes possible through the upgraded Panama Canal shipping things from Singapore to Chicago via the Suez Canal and East Coast ports looks more attractive.
Risenmessiah Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 1:23 am
Well actually…
In principle you are correct, but the real issue is that WalMart has a just-in-time logistics strategy which would favor continue to use West Coast ports because it is cheaper for them.
Also, don’t forget that Los Angeles is the port of entry for tons of higher priced good like cars….
adirondacker12800 Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
Shipping it to a Gulf Port is cheaper. Ships are realllly reallly cheap way to move commodity goods. The Gulf coast is rich with railroad connections unlike the mainlines going over the Rockies. And if you listen to the I-69 conspiracists, Walmart is going to be unloading ships in Mexico because even though unloading containers is really really cheap it’s even cheaper in Mexico. They are gonna run out of cheap port before they need four freight tracks.
Alon Levy Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
Ships are about as cheap as Class I railroads. They’re only significantly cheaper in places where rail is more expensive than in North America, like Europe.
Nathanael Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
Well, depends on the situation. You’re right about ocean ships; *downstream barges* are absurdly cheap, however.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
Ships currently going through the Panama Canal carry 5000 TEUs. Once the canal is wide enough for the new ships they’ll be carrying 12,000. They aren’t considering replacing the Bayonne Bride with a tunnel because if it’s cheaper to tranship cheap shit in Los Angeles.
thatbruce Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Cheaper?
The article has two quotes in particular:
“When the Alameda Corridor was being built, there were no new ports in Mexico or Canada that would compete with us. There were no plans to expand the Panama Canal to accommodate much larger ships,” she said.
and
Only about a third of the ports’ cargo traffic moves from ship to train and then through the corridor. The largest percentage of the cargo bypasses the corridor because the containers ride on trucks bound for Southern California delivery or for nearby national distribution centers. These include the sprawling warehouse complexes in the Inland Empire, where the goods are repackaged into lighter domestic containers when retailers need the products.
That mode of freight movement, called transloading, developed as the corridor’s backers worked to get funding as well as approval for the route from multiple jurisdictions.
Once ships of a larger size (= lower cost per container) are going through Panama, it will be cheaper than transshipping at a US-West port. The Gulf Coast ports might also be in slight trouble, if transloading from Mexico works out to be cheaper.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
Yes. it’s going to be cheaper to ship things to New York, Norfolk or Jacksonville than it will be to unload them in Long Beach and ship them overland to Atlanta, Chicago or Pittsburgh. Which is why the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey is studying how to replace the Bayonne Bridge. Lots lots cheaper to ship something to New York from China by ship and then a short truck ride to the distribution warehouse in Piscataway.
Alon Levy Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 10:27 pm
How would you propose to get goods to Pittsburgh and Atlanta without shipping things overland?
adirondacker12800 Reply:
September 14th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
They never built the TranRockie Canal so from Long Beach or Los Angeles it’s truck, train or plane. Pittburgh? Up the Mississippi to the Ohio. The Port’s website even offers options for the Monongahela or Allegheny and crane over water so things can get to Pittsburgh without using wheels on dry land. Doesn’t look like Atlanta has a port.
“Schwarzenegger checks out China’s high-speed rail”
StevieB Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 5:35 pm
China is spending $300 billion on high speed rail across China. China is building systems in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Venezuela and negotiating with Thailand. China is serious about building their high speed rail system in California.
Nathanael Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
China is *very* serious about rail. They’ve just committed to the line from China to Vientiane, for service to Thailand; they’re negotiating on *three* different routes from Sinkiang to Iran, while funding the Iran-Turkey linkup.
Would you be surprised if they decide to fund the Bering Strait Bridge? Because I wouldn’t.
I just hope that our next Governor (hopefully Jerry Brown) will be just as much fascinated by high-speed rail as Schwarzenegger was. I could imagine that Singapore would also jump on the wagon. Although they have no high-speed rail, I’m sure they know about the potential of such a line in California. By the time the rail track is complete, we will have more than 40 million residents in California.
Victor Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 4:50 pm
Considering Jerry Brown was the guy who started all this HSR stuff in California way back when, I’d think He’s still for It and more so cause of the current economy needing jobs and that would do It.
Alon Levy Reply:
September 12th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
You shouldn’t count on Singaporean funding. Temasek Holdings invests in the Asia-Pacific region, with a disproportionate emphasis on projects within Singapore. Unlike China, which is investing worldwide as a geopolitical play, Singapore invests the middle class’s social security savings for maximum return on investment.
Besides, so far Singapore has not been interesting in high-speed rail. While the country’s internal transportation network is dominated by transit, which increasingly means subways, the government has been relatively uninterested in intercity transportation. It’s building Changi into a global airline hub on the belief that it provides economic development, but actively ignores the potential for rail links to Malaysia.
One difference between California in 2010 and Western Europe in 1947: China does not need to create consumer demand for it’s products in California. A huge demand already exists.
California accounts for about thirty per cent of all United States imports from China ( $90 billion per year of the $300 billion total).
Over the next 20 years ( The time it might take for CAHSR to become fully operational) California imports from China will total $1.8 trillion at current rates, but with the recession our imports from China have been sagging a little. For them it would be well worth it to advance us $10 billion or so to assure that high speed rail gets built: Plump us up a bit so we can buy more of their stuff. Over the next 20 years or so a $10 billion Chinese investment in CAHSR could lead to hundreds of billions in additional business.
jimsf Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 5:10 am
I’m used to seeing lots of stuff made in china on the shelves, but yesterday took the cake when I was at walgreens and found strawberry preserves for one dollar. A brand I’d never heard of, so I looked to see if it was locally produced. Made in Chine. Now we all know how expensive items like peanut butter and jam, and syrup and such are… yet this was only a dollar. There was no way I was going to eat that. It was probably made from lead infused sawdust or soylent green or something.
Matthew F. Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 10:06 pm
Insane considering California is the strawberry capital of the world…
Robert Cruickshank Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 10:29 pm
The last two years have been particularly good years for strawberries, at least for the Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) farm we get ours from up in Watsonville. Delicious.
Anyhow, yes, the situation jimsf describes is nuts.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
September 14th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Sometimes it gets even wierder with things that are sweet. We tax in the import of sugar but we don’t tax the import of things with sugar in them. So strawberrry preserves made in the US use high fructose corn syrup, which cost more than the world price of sugar but less than the US price of sugar. The rest of the world just uses sugar which is cheaper than corn syrup….