Over at the Press-Enterprise, Dug Begley provides a very thorough overview of the three proposed Las Vegas to Southern California HSR systems:

• DesertXpress, a steel-wheel HSR train running initially from Vegas to Victorville with a later extension to Palmdale and a transfer to the CA HSR system

• Maglev, which would theoretically run from Anaheim to Vegas but would more likely only connect Vegas to the proposed Ivanpah Valley Airport

• Desert Lightning, which would connect LA to Phoenix along Interstate 10 and Vegas to this line via the US-95 corridor along the Colorado River

The article does a good job describing the three projects, which are familiar to longtime blog readers. The DesertXpress project is closest to groundbreaking and since it’s not seeking federal funding, it’s considered to be in the “lead” – although they will be seeking some federal loans, which is far from certain to materialize.

Begley does provide some interesting new angles from maglev supporters that I’ve not heard before:

At $12.1 billion, maglev’s cost is three times that of Desert Xpress, but it also would take riders to and from Anaheim, much closer to millions of potential riders. Support from state and local officials — like Las Vegas Councilman Barlow — also give maglev proponents an edge in seeking government subsidies to build the nearly 300-mile line. …

The upside to the major cost is operating maglev is much cheaper, Bordeaux said.

“We are going to operate at a third of the cost,” Bordeaux said. “We’ll return a surplus to the commission.”

Maglev might well provide more revenue, but I’m not sure I buy the “operate at a third of the cost” claim, especially not for a technology that has never been employed for a system covering this distance. Working out the inevitable kinks will almost certainly produce unforeseen yet significant costs.

Of course, the bigger question is maglev’s overall construction cost. Because of the unproven nature of this technology, I find a $12 billion estimate to be on the low side. Whereas standard HSR is a commonplace technology, meaning one can have a high amount of confidence that it can be built close to the projected cost given that the construction methods and materials are already well-known, the limited experience with smaller maglev proposals and systems in China and Germany do not inspire confidence that maglev’s costs will not spiral.

I have never expected the maglev project to actually come to fruition, at least not anytime soon. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid shifted his support from maglev to DesertXpress last year, and earlier in 2010 he slammed the maglev project, telling them “No one is stopping you” and that they have only themselves to blame for their 30 year record of inability to move the project forward. If maglev ever gets funded and built, I will be as amazed as anyone.

The third proposal, Desert Lightning, seems to be more of an attempt to get federal study money than a serious proposal to build a workable HSR system. The proposal to follow Highway 95 and the Colorado River to T-bone the LA-Phoenix line seems particularly hard to defend, given that nobody lives along that route except the few residents of Laughlin, Needles, and of course, Snoopy’s cousin Spike. On the other hand, a T-bone system would also enable it to be used to serve Phoenix-Vegas passengers, and a T-bone system is being proposed for Texas HSR. In any case, an LA-Phoenix HSR route is a good idea – at 358 miles it’s within the recommended distance for HSR to be effective, and would enable service to the Coachella Valley.

Begley is one of the better reporters in California when it comes to understanding transit issues, and his article does a good job of explaining the benefits of Vegas HSR and why it’s attractive to riders – and what would encourage people to ride:

“I’ve been hearing about them a long time, and I’ve been waiting to use them,” said Tammy Boucher, a waitress at an eatery inside the Golden Gate Casino on Fremont Street. She said she is looking for an inexpensive way to visit her daughter in the San Bernardino Mountains….

Nicole Stefko said she would feel much better putting her 15-year-old daughter, Athena, on a train to visit relatives in Southern California, as opposed to a plane. For one, it would give her more control about when her daughter came and went. Stefko said she was recently frustrated when the airline told her it would cost $50 to change Athena’s ticket.

With a train, you could buy one-way tickets and travel when you wanted to, Stefko said.

“I’d like to see $100 for a round-trip ticket that doesn’t have all the limitations on it,” she said while picking her daughter up at Las Vegas’ McCarran International Airport.

Most said the $100 price would be the optimum to get them out of their cars.

It’s clear that people will support and use HSR if it’s affordable for them to do so. Given that HSR is powered by electricity, making it less dependent on rising fossil fuel costs (and totally independent of those costs if the system is powered by renewable energy), that goes a long way in making the system affordable.

Others emphasized convenience:

But it would also have to fit their needs.

“The whole question to me is how long does it take and how many stops does it make,” said Danny Avila, a Las Vegas restaurant manager. “If they can’t tell me that, I’m not interested.”

That’s a sensible question to ask, and although it’s just one person’s view, I know I share his view that HSR is most useful when it’s fast and doesn’t have an unreasonable number of stops. But it’s also clear that demand for HSR between Vegas and SoCal is there – how can it not be, given the long traffic jams people routinely endure on weekends on Interstate 15 in the Mojave Desert.

The key question here is funding. DesertXpress would seem to be the most realistic and sensible plan, the one with the greatest likelihood of being funded. Where that funding comes from is still unclear, but that doesn’t change the fact that Vegas HSR is going to be popular, well-used, and will help support the growth of sustainable transit here in the Western USA.