CHSRA Expects Bids To Begin in 2011

Jun 18th, 2010 | Posted by

At the USHSR conference in Los Angeles this week – an event where Californians For High Speed Rail‘s Daniel Krause also spoke – Quentin Kopp, member of the CHSRA board, said that they expect to start taking bids in 2011 in order to begin construction in early 2012:

The state has until September 2011 to complete an environmental review of the line intended to zip riders between the Bay Area and Los Angeles in less than three hours, Quentin Kopp, a California High-Speed Rail Authority board member, told Bloomberg on Friday.

Bids, likely from about 10 train manufacturers, will then be reviewed, Kopp told the news agency.

“Allow four months for the conclusion of proposals and bids, and I estimate conservatively that construction will begin by the first part of 2012,” Kopp told Bloomberg.

“I do expect many” bids from international companies, said Kopp, who was attending the U.S. High-Speed Rail Association conference in Los Angeles. “We have no examples within the United States, no models to follow,” he told Bloomberg.

This will be a extremely important part of the overall project, and you can expect this blog and CA4HSR will be watching this very closely to ensure the bidding works out in the best interests of Californians and future HSR riders.

Given the ongoing global recession, this schedule needs to be kept. We saw significant inflation in construction costs in the last decade, which was one reason the East Span of the SF-Oakland Bay Bridge project ran into its own financial difficulties in 2004. Here in 2010, however, many infrastructure bids are coming in well below estimates. It’s the right time to start building, and those who suggest we wait are implicitly saying we should be willing to spend more money when we have no need to do so.

Of course, that will raise the question of where the rest of the money comes from. We still expect the federal government will provide its share, once this temporary, silly fit of Hooverism is over. So what about the remaining $10 billion or so?

In the past, I’ve suggested that public pension funds like CalPERS should consider making an investment in HSR as a source of stable, long-term revenue that can help smooth out the boom-and-bust cycle of stock market investments. CalPERS is apparently already looking at investing in transportation infrastructure, as evidenced by their recent purchase of a stake in London’s Gatwick Airport:

Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, said on Friday it had committed up to roughly $155 million to Global Infrastructure Partners for a 12.7 percent equity stake in London’s Gatwick Airport.

The commitment marks the first direct infrastructure investment foray by Calpers, the $200 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System.

It covers the equity purchase price and provisions for bridge costs and future administrative expenses, Calpers said in a statement.

“We are looking for opportunities to invest directly in high-quality infrastructure assets. We see it as a good fit for our burgeoning infrastructure program,” said George Diehr, chairman of Calpers’ investment committee.

CalPERS has about $180 billion in assets. Could they spare $10 billion or so to invest in high speed rail? That would be a significant expenditure for CalPERS; perhaps they could take a smaller share and split with other public pension funds around the country, such as CalSTRS and funds from other states.

But it would be a sensible solution to some of the questions about how to fund HSR. Instead of embracing the high risk that comes with private sector funding, public sector funds could be used to build a public sector project. HSR would be a safe, stable, long-term investment for CalPERS and other funds, and they could continue to augment that rate of return with their other investments.

It certainly sounds like the wheels may be turning at CalPERS on this. That would be a good thing for HSR, for people invested in the CalPERS system (like my wife), and for the state of California.

  1. YesonHSR
    Jun 19th, 2010 at 01:09
    #1

    Good …if we can get this President to stop caring about people that hate him and move on we can move fast on this .

    Rafael Reply:

    CalPERS isn’t under the President’s control. Neither is the US Senate.

    YesonHSR Reply:

    Of course they are not its the party of No types screaming about every little thing he wants to invest in as “bankrupting’ are kids…If HE says move the bill you know the mover will start…I have ofter thought of CalPERS as a possible investor as a great idea

  2. Rafael
    Jun 19th, 2010 at 02:23
    #2

    O/T: Emerging HSR is facing opposition from Class I freight operators because of FRA language that would hold them liable for structural delays to HSR service at 90-110mph based on sharing track. The FRA’s thinking is that HSR isn’t worth having if it is subject to such delays, i.e. the freight railroads shouldn’t be given taxpayer money unless they give due priority to such services.

    For now, the Chicago-St. Louis emerging HSR corridor is “on hold”.

    Union Pacific is among the most vocal opponents of the strings FRA wants to attach: it doesn’t operate to a hard timetable, so its trains would suffer delays if it were forced to give passenger HSR trains dispatch priority. In California at least, BNSF has a different business model that is more compatible with timetable operations.

    Without corridors elsewhere in the country, it would be that much harder for Florida and especially, California to secure federal funding for their express HSR projects, which do not rely on freight tracks.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-18/u-s-high-speed-rail-plan-faces-tension-over-tracks-update1-.html

    Dennis Lytton Reply:

    “[UP] doesn’t operate to a hard timetable” The US freight railroad business model (in pure form at UP) of running minimally powered trains a few thousand feet long over a minimally maintained ROW leads to some of the laziest railroaders on earth. There habit of running trains without a schedule no doubt increases their labor costs.

    PRIIA authorization for Amtrak that pased a few years ago puts some teeth in to the on time performance requirements for Amtrak. STB can investigate and impose penalties. Furthermore the ARRA authorization can’t be effective unless it has some teeth. Amtrak has statutory authority to run on freight infrastructure.

    Need I say more. UP needs to be a good corporate citizen. They do not own a conventional piece of private property like a building or a house. They own the only viable rail transport routes in the corridors that they inhabit.

    I’m so glad to LaHood pushing back against them.

  3. Eric M
    Jun 19th, 2010 at 09:24
    #3

    I still think China is going to come forward and offer the majority of the money this project needs/missing. They have a lot of reserves just waiting to be invested places in the world and it will be a shame when they put up more than our own government for our project. $30 billion is a drop in the bucket for them but a life savor for us.

  4. jimsf
    Jun 19th, 2010 at 09:52
    #4

    I wonder if problem railroads such as UP should be considered to be in that “too big to fail” category, and as such, be broken up like we did with att. I mean doesn’t having just two are three large railroads restrict real competition?

    YesonHSR Reply:

    about 15 years back the then SantaFe railroad tried to buy the SP but it was turned down by Anti-trust
    Too bad as we would not have to deal with UPs SOB games

  5. Mike
    Jun 19th, 2010 at 14:04
    #5

    See, this is the kind of financial know-knothing-ism that plays right into the hands of the anti-HSR folks … at least, that anti-HSR contingent that believes that the financing plan is a scam.

    Fact: any investor — even a state pension fund — is going to insist on a reliable revenue stream that can repay their debt. Even in its most optimistic analysis, CHSRA has never shown a pro-forma that can service any more than maybe $6 billion to $8 billion of debt, and all indications are that roughly this amount of debt will be owed to the trainset manufacturer. Maybe a little more debt is possible; maybe the trainset ends up not consuming all of the debt capacity; maybe CalPERS or another pension fund is willing to take a slightly riskier position. But an additional $10 billion of debt is straight out fantasy. There’s only one place from which the remaining capital funding is going to come, and that is government.

    YesonHSR Reply:

    In the business plan the trainsets are pegged at 2.5-3 Billion dollars

    Joey Reply:

    Trainsets are included into the initial capital costs anyway.

    Mike Reply:

    Joey, you mean the “initial capital cost” that is underfunded to the tune of $30 billion dollars? Isn’t that the whole into which Robert is suggesting that CalPERS will throw money?

  6. TomW
    Jun 21st, 2010 at 11:01
    #6

    Pension funds have the big advantage that they want long-term, ralatively safe investments – and transport infrastructure fits the bill. A private investor is considered long-term if they are happy to wait 10 years, whereas a pension fund would consider 10 years short-to-medium term.

  7. Mike
    Jun 21st, 2010 at 14:09
    #7

    No investor considers an investment to be “relatively safe” if it has not yet been built, has not yet generated any revenue, and has not yet proven itself in the marketplace. An operating airport (Heathrow) is *very* different than a HSR project that is not yet built and won’t generate any revenue (much less surplus revenue with which to service debt) for many years. We can point to Europe and Japan all we want and claim that every HSR system turns a healthy profit; none of this matters to real-world investors who are inherently conservative. Witness CHSRA revealing recently that they need to be able to provide some sort of ridership or revenue guarantee in order to secure the $6b to $8b that’s assumed in the financial plan.

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