Subverting the Status Quo
Over the last few days that I’ve been here in Seattle (flying back to San Jose tonight), I’ve been pondering some thoughts about the state of things, specifically the resistance to change and refusal to admit that it is necessary. A quote from Jane Jacobs, tweeted today by Richard Florida, is illustrative of the phenomenon:
Economic development, no matter when or where it occurs, is profoundly subversive of the status quo.
This applies quite well to California’s high speed rail project. It is a fundamental element of our state’s economic development plans for the 21st century. I would go so far as to say that it is necessary to economic development, given California’s need to provide fast intrastate transportation that isn’t dependent on oil or on spending well above $100 billion on expanding freeways and airports or on flooding parts of San Mateo County with seawater when global warming melts icecaps.
At this blog, we’ve consistently made these arguments, pointing out that the cost of doing nothing is not zero. As Bianca said in a recent comment, the State Auditor didn’t analyze the risk to the state of the CA HSR project not getting built on time.
Why isn’t that examined? And why do NIMBYs and those who doubt HSR’s value and effectiveness wield such disproportionate influence over the process of implementing the will of the voters?
It goes back to Jane Jacobs’s quote. HSR means a change to the status quo. American society – including our politics and our economics – is now defined primarily by a fundamental divide. One side is comprised of those that understand the status quo has totally failed, producing political paralysis and widespread economic misery, not to mention environmental catastrophe, and therefore significant change is necessary and inevitable.
On the other side are those who adamantly refuse to believe that change is either necessary or desirable, who believe that the status quo works just fine and absolutely must not be changed. Some of them instinctively know that change is coming, but because they have invested so deeply into the 20th century model of America – sprawling, dependent on oil, dominating the world yet delusional about the costs of maintaining that dominance and prosperity – they see any proposal to change as some kind of inherent attack on their America.
The primary form that divide has taken is between the “Tea Party” movement and progressives. But here in California, and to a lesser extent in Seattle as well, the divide manifests itself somewhat differently. It’s not between decent society and a bunch of wacko racists claiming that the president wasn’t born in the US. Instead the divide is between those who seek greater public investment in building the elements of 21st century prosperity – including but not limited to high speed rail – and those who refuse to see such investment as necessary or desirable and come up with reason after reason why we shouldn’t do it.
HSR opponents are just one aspect of this. You can see it in Berkeley where a bunch of NIMBYs are blocking a BRT line. You can see it in those who advocate for privatizing public schools instead of investing more to ensure all of California’s children can learn.
Although the forms of the divide are different in California, the effects are the same. The defenders of the status quo – who are actively resisting efforts to produce change that can ensure greater prosperity for all – are generally people who already enjoy considerable political and economic privilege. This is not to say they are wealthy, although a good number of them are, but that they enjoy a kind of economic security most of the rest of us lack. They can look at something like HSR and see it as unnecessary because, hey, they’ve got theirs. Why worry about the rest of us who look at rising oil prices and a lack of jobs and see a situation that threatens to permanently exclude us from prosperity?
This is especially annoying because the divide is entirely unnecessary. Some of the biggest beneficiaries of high speed rail will be the very NIMBYs who are fighting it. Their property values will rise when noisy diesel trains are largely removed from the Peninsula rail corridor, when traffic isn’t blocked by at-grade crossings, and when children no longer risk death crossing the tracks. Peninsula cities will become more attractive to businesses, and residents will have access to more jobs since HSR opens up more of the state to them. They will benefit from the Green Dividend. And they will benefit when younger generations are able to enjoy prosperity and pay for the benefits and home values of the older generations.
But because those changes require shifting mindsets and acknowledging that the status quo no longer works, the defenders of the status quo find themselves unwilling to go there. And so California, a state which in the 20th century was a synonym for innovation and global leadership, falls under the control of those who refuse to innovate and eschew leadership.
The forces of change will win. It is inevitable. But it would be nice if it didn’t require this ridiculous, pitched battle. Between 1930 and 1960, Californians agreed that we needed hydroelectric dams, bridges, freeways, aqueducts, and a education system the envy of the world in order to provide for future prosperity. There wasn’t a pitched battle over this; Californians agreed on the need and built it. And the prosperity that remains in this state exists only because of those investments. Yet those beneficiaries now ask us to refuse to make similar investments for a new century and new conditions.
When we see some institutions of state government captured by the “defend the status quo at all costs” mentality, like the State Auditor, it’s another depressing sign that it does require a pitched battle to help bring change to California. November 2008 proved that Californians want change and want HSR to be part of their state’s future. It’s up to us to see that mandate through, even when a very small but vocal group of people would prefer we chain ourselves to a failed, obsolete, and dying model of what America should be.
Awesome post. Those that refuse to see reality are a big, if not the most prominent, part of the problem. They just can’t wrap their heads around the huge investments that would be needed if HSR doesn’t happen…..or they just don’t care. I can totally see the NIMBY’s/HSR opponents thinking, “first we stop HSR, then we stop the new airports and freeways and viola! Tax cuts and I get a new in-ground swimming pool!”
They don’t care others will suffer. They don’t care they are condemning the state to a future of economic obsolescence. They are selfish. They want theirs and they want it now! They represent everything wrong with this country and the sooner they are silenced and dis-empowered the better for everyone. This country would literally be a better place if they didn’t exist at all.
Of course the fact that they would, in fact, benefit from HSR is perhaps the strangest thing of all.
YesonHSR Reply:
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:36 pm
They also have the luxury of free time..due to age or wealth to show up at every HSR meeting ,hearing
state senate thing and make negative comments or worse pressure the elected officals. Most of us I would say still have to work 40hours a week and to go up to Sac would have to use vaction/personal time..Ive only been to one HSR open house because it was in the evening and close(SF) . This also
shows the squeakey wheel get all the attention..and I dont want to hear CAHSR is not listing to these whinnes..they have had 6-9 meetings in Menlo/PA ect and a whooping 2 in SF were 72 percent want HSR
Brandon from San Diego Reply:
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:17 pm
Yes, Excellent blog post. I would like to see this published in the main stream papers like the Chron or LA Times as a guest editorial.
Off topic: Mercury News reported today that China spent a whopping $58 billion to “spruce up” Shanghai for the World Expo: mainly infrastructure in the form of new subway lines and a new airport terminal. I don’t know about you, but the more I think about it, the more I think China SHOULD invest in our HSR system.
jimsf Reply:
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:41 pm
If they have 58 billion lying around to “spruce up” here and there on a whim, forget ca hsr, I’m moving to china! Why stay here and rearrange the deck chairs… you know in the 70s in school they used to tell us “take spanish, one day you’ll have to know it” I think they should have said Mandarin.
Alon Levy Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 1:32 am
I don’t think they have it lying around. Most of this is infrastructure they’d have to build anyway. Shanghai needs more (and better-designed) subway lines; the Expo is just a deadline for completing a few projects faster.
wu ming Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 11:25 am
funny thing is, the chinese gov’t is *still* trying to get shanghainese to speak mandarin. there are street signs all over the place pleading with people to speak mandarin, instead of their mutually unintelligible native language of shanghainese. they’ll switch to mandarin for foreigners, or if they have to talk with some “waidiren” (outsider), but between themselves they’d much rather speak shanghainese.
mandarin’s still a better investment of years of suffering, though, as shanghainese is only useful in shanghai. spanish, given the much lower cost in overall suffering, may still be the better decision, doubly so if you live in CA.
Who died and made megaprojects subversive?
rafael Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:50 am
The US has plenty of megaprojects underway right now. Unfortunately, almost all of them are for new weapons systems.
The core issue isn’t a lack of funds, though the federal deficit is a huge issue. Rather, it’s that the US has its investment priorities all screwed up. The superpowers of the early 21st century are those with the strongest economies, not those with the biggest guns. Civilian infrastructure allows a civilization to progress, military hardware merely defends the status quo – and often, it even fails to accomplish that.
jimsf Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 9:05 am
That’s true, remember what happened to the soviet union.
One wants to think that our leaders are making decisions based on knowledge, that maybe they know something we don’t know so we should just go along with what they do. But then you watch and listen and think, “these guys are buffoons, I don[‘t think they have any idea what they are doing”
it really seems to come down to too much politics and not enough getting things done.
I know that other counties have more than one party, but they seem to be better at getting things accomplished in spite of political differences.
I’ve always assumed that maybe it’s because europe for instance has thousands of years of history and wisdom to draw from and a long memory, versus america’s few hundred years and short attention span.
dejv Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 1:17 am
This was the case in 20th century as well. The strenght of US economy was crucial for results of both WWII and cold war in the 80′s.
I think you’re being too generous to the Peninsula NIMBYites.
A better analogy would be that they are the Republican Party’s Wall Street/Establishment crowd, as opposed to the Tea Partiers.
Just this morning I saw (in that totally obnoxious paper, the Daily Post) a piece on why HSR shoudl be delayed-which of course means in reality it will never happen.
Its ironic that here in CA, its highly educated, affluent types-the exact opposite of the Tea Party stereotype-who are doing their bit to make America a 21st Century shithole.
Tom Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:12 pm
Wow Amanda that’s quite a comment. Actually the vast majority of Peninsula people are hard core democrats. Look at how long Anna Eshoo has been in office and all the rest of the pols. They’re all democrats. Republicans are a small minority with very little influence. Not sure what it means to make America a 21st century s-hole. If that means opposing HSR, then they are exercising some fiscal intelligence. And we sure need some fiscal intelligence in this country right now. Here you have a project that does not work financially, it is run by incompetents, and it aims to radically alter many communities. Is that making America a s-hole? Come on. Get real.
Peter Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
So, the NIMBYs are trying to have it both ways: “We support HSR in principle, but only if it doesn’t inconvenience us. And if it inconveniences us, then we start pointing fingers at things like ‘ZOMG, my house price dropped at the same time as everyone else’s, blame HSR!’ or ‘Holy crap, there’s a typo in the ridership analysis, scrap the entire project!’”
Those may not be Tea Party arguments, but they sure as hell make no sense.
This is completely irrelevant but as I was riding my bike to work this morning, I noticed that Siemens had a nice advertisement for high speed rail on one of the bus shelters directly across the street from the FAA headquarters.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:02 am
Nice. In Oklahoma City?
Ben Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 11:24 am
DC.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 11:57 am
Ahh, right. I thought their headquarters were in Oklahoma City, but I guess that’s just where their operations headquarters are.
Ben Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 12:39 pm
The Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center is in OKC (http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/agc/operations/regional/AMC/). The FAA also has a big technical center in Atlantic City with several thousand employees.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 12:48 pm
I’ve only ever interacted with OKC.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 12:57 pm
..near Atlantic City, it’s on the Mainland – Atlantic City is an island.
joe romo Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Overheard on a train was Siemens’ new company motto: “Engineering services in support of subverting the status quo”. Uh oh, just wait til their shareholders find out!
“And why do NIMBYs and those who doubt HSR’s value and effectiveness wield such disproportionate influence over the process of implementing the will of the voters?”
Its because PA, Menlo Park and Atherton think they are the centre of the universe.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:50 am
No no no, the center of the Universe is in San Jose. That’s why they are proposing a station bigger than the one in San Francisco. Bigger than the one most places in the world.
Joe Romo Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 12:08 pm
If the people this post so arrogantly and dismissively refers to wield disproportionate influence, it’s only because many of them will potentially suffer a disproportionate share of the negative consequences. Ultimately, they will have a disproportionate say precisely because the thing runs through their back yards, or takes their backyards away, or takes a view, or value, or some less tangible but still very real part of the quality of life–the very reason they chose to live in a particular community. The will of the voters that you speak is not some absolute that negates the ability of those affected to exercise their rights. The will of the voters doesn’t take away the ability to speak against something, to access the court system, to lobby elected representatives, to write letters to editors, and so on.
For some people, the proposed project has already undoubtedly caused economic harm which cannot, and will not ever be compensated. Which is to be expected, because all public projects to some extent pit collective rights aka “the greater good” against individual or property rights.
Robert Cruickshank Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:20 pm
You say “For some people, the proposed project has already undoubtedly caused economic harm which cannot, and will not ever be compensated.”
Explain this economic harm. Quantify it. I don’t buy it, so prove your points.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:26 pm
Isn’t an economic harm precisely the sort of harm that CAN in fact be monetarily quantified and compensated? Isn’t that part of the definition?
Also, what harm “has already undoubtedly” been caused? No dirt has been turned, nothing has been built. All that has happened so far is that studies have been done.
Robert Cruickshank Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:31 pm
Exactly! People need to be able to defend these claims.
Spokker Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:32 pm
Joe’s requirements for public works projects:
1. Nobody can be inconvenienced.
2. Nobody’s feelings can be hurt.
3. Everybody must agree on it.
If that were the case we’d only build NASCAR speedways.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:40 pm
Not in my backyard….. speediest thing I want to see is cat chasing a chipmunk.
Spokker Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:43 pm
Actually no, if the neighbor’s cat comes into your yard you SUE YOUR NEIGHBOR.
Also, bicker with your neighbor over the property line and make them MOVE THEIR FENCE.
Keep chasing that backyard, America. Enjoy it while it lasts.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:55 pm
Nah the cat doesn’t go anywhere near the neighbor, the neighbor has a beagle who likes to cahe cats. The cat will, when either of them are in the mood, torment the beast by patrolling back and forth along the fence line. They try to make it look like they are searching for the ever elusive chipmunk but they are just playing games with the dog’s mind.
mara Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 7:47 pm
On the Peninsula, people who live within a certain distance of the Caltrain tracks (I think 1 mile) have to disclose potential HSR impacts when putting their homes on the market to sell. From what I understand, people who live in relative proximity (not just next to, but within some distance of the ROW) have seen their property values by decline by 20% versus comps just a few more blocks away. Moreover, I’ve heard that people with houses adjacent to the tracks are finding their homes nearly impossible to sell.
Your expectations of higher real estate prices are not aligned with market reality.
Talk to local real estate agents if you want to do your own research.
Consider Joe Romo’s claim defended.
Robert Cruickshank Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 7:54 pm
I’d like to see actual evidence of this.
And surely living next to a rail corridor with diesel emissions and loud horns doesn’t cause any problems for buyers. Are you sure that any possible losses aren’t explained by the problems on the existing corridor – problems HSR would resolve?
Finally, it should not be government policy or the responsibility of Californians as a whole to subsidize anyone else’s housing values. Buying real estate is like buying any other asset – there is a risk that the price might go down.
joe romo Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:34 pm
Well, this is one of the things I’m thinking of. I certainly don’t have time to come up with the project to measure it but it’s pretty easy to think that it could be the case and probably is. If you’ve ever talked with anyone in the market to buy a home you’d learn that most of them are pretty risk averse. It’s one thing to deal with a known rail ROW (note that in many places with grade separations the horns are not a real big problem) you can see/hear/smell what it’s like and talk with the neighbors. It’s a KNOWN. But it’s another to deal with the vast uncertainty like what we see now. Will there be eminent domain? Where? What will the finished project look like? Sound like? Vibrations? How long will construction last? How bad will that be? Nobody can really answer most of these questions right now and (most) buyers just wouldn’t want to take a chance. These are UNKNOWNS.
It’s not up do Californians or the government to subsidize values but it’s also not expected that Californians would make the price go down i.e. undermine values without compensation. Yet it happens. And when it does it’s bad for the people it happens to.
Drive along the ROW through San Mateo and Burlingame and you will see those homes for sale. And if it’s so likely that they’re going to be worth more because of faster, quieter, cleaner trains then where are all the really smart investors getting a great deal now so they can make a killing later? How come you guys aren’t buying?
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:05 pm
If I could afford a house in PAMPA, even with the allegedly depressed housing prices along the ROW, I would. But I can’t.
A lot of the “unknowns” you refer to are not unknowns.
- Noise. Will be much less for a number of reasons: a) Complete removal of grade-crossings. No more horns blasting or bells ringing every few minutes. b) Electric trains are a lot quieter than the current diesel monsters. c) Tracks will have to be maintained to higher standards, hence there will be less noise as trains go by.
- Vibration. Will be much less for similar reasons: a) HSR as well as the new Caltrain trainsets will be much lighter, hence less vibration. b) Tracks will have to be maintained to higher standards, hence less vibration.
- Eminent domain. There will likely be some. The vast majority of the corridor is wide enough for four tracks with ease. The most eminent domain that will occur will be a few feet off of someone’s backyard or a few feet off of a parking lot.
- What will it look like? For some good examples of what it could look like, check out Menlo Park’s plans for the Menlo Park station. http://www.menlopark.org/departments/trn/gradesep_pres.pdf
Fact of the matter is, we don’t know yet exactly what it is going to look like.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:08 pm
And before you attack my last sentence, not knowing “exactly” what it’s going to look like is NOT the same as having no blooming clue whatsoever.
Risenmessiah Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:08 pm
Risk averse?
Are these the same homebuyers who saw their houses go up 300% in value and then take HELOC’s out at this unreasonable prices only to refinance with an adjustable rate ARM in 2006? I mean sure, there are property owners out there who are as conservative as you speak of. And sure, they are likely to have some inability to quantify the impact of HSR.
But the the core of Robert’s thesis is true: the Peninsula is going to benefit from new infrastructure from HSR and residents there are going to benefit too.
Joey Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:09 pm
So decreased property values are really a short term phenomenon based on short term unknowns rather than long term predictions about what HSR will look like?
mara Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Talk to real estate agents in PA, MP, Atherton, and ask them about the impact of HSR on housing in proximity to the Caltrain ROW. I’m confident they’ll support my thesis.
At minimum, you need to agree that Joe Romo is right. HSR is “costing” people even though no dirt has been turned.
Joey Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:58 pm
Explain how it is “costing” them, other than those who spend every waking moment of their lives attacking anything they can possibly throw themselves at?
Tom Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
It’s costing them for the obvious reason that values are declining near the rail line.
You don’t have to be right on the tracks, but if you’re in the neighborhood there is a decline.
So there’s a cost in terms of one’s most significant asset.
Peter Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:14 pm
But, once again, where’s the proof that it has anything to do with HSR? Have you worked out a timeline to show when housing prices started to decrease along the ROW? Or were they always lower because of the railroad and they’re now being used as a red herring in building a case against using the Caltrain corridor for HSR?
As Robert said, investing in a house is no different than in any other asset: Prices go up and down, and no one ever guaranteed that the price would stay up or go up higher.
Joey Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:18 pm
Tom: show me ONE piece of hard evidence that indicates that (a) Property values are significantly lower near the rail line and (b) That prices have dropped recently (that is – more than everything else has dropped) as a result of the uncertainties associated with HSR.
Joey Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:59 pm
And “I’m sure they’ll agree with me” is not a way to make a logical argument. Until you back it up with evidence, it’s just a baseless claim.
Tom Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:25 pm
It’s hardly a baseless claim if real estate agents say the values of property are dropping
near the tracks. And they are saying that.
Joey Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:30 pm
Are they? Surely if it’s a significant phenomenon then there will have been some news articles about it…
Peter Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
I guarantee you there will be something like that in the PA Daily Buttwipe in the next couple of days…
Bianca Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 11:45 pm
It’s hardly a baseless claim if real estate agents say the values of property are dropping
near the tracks. And they are saying that.
That’s not any more convincing an argument than “some people say…”
House prices have gone soft all across the Bay Area. I know it’s one of those things that just isn’t supposed to happen on the Peninsula but there you go. According to Zillow, the value of our house has dropped by over 25% in the last year. But I don’t really live close enough to the tracks to be able to lay the blame on HSR. It’s a convenient thing to lay the blame for volatility in the housing market at the feet of HSR, but its utterly and completely unprovable.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 9:53 pm
So, why is it that the housing prices are so much lower, assuming they are. Is it because they are right next to a busy diesel-powered railroad? Or because HSR is going to be built on the Caltrain ROW.
Robert Cruickshank Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:59 pm
If I had enough money to buy a house on the Peninsula (and I’m not anywhere close, I’m just a poor plebe hoping HSR can help me afford to travel around my state in the coming years), I’d totally buy a place near the HSR line. There’s nothing but upside.
If people are freaking out about the impact of HSR, then I’m getting a damn good deal in a good neighborhood that is walkable and well-served by transit. If people are worried about losing a house to eminent domain, and I know that actually very few properties will be taken for HSR, then I can also get a good deal. If they’re right and I actually do lose the home to eminent domain, then I know I’ll have a guaranteed buyer at a fair market price, instead of leaving my home to sit on the MLS for months on end.
That is, if I had the money. I don’t, so it’s academic.
HSRComingSoon Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:23 pm
That’s strange, because I have yet to hear about how living near SFO has caused property values to drop in Millbrae, Burlingame, Hillsborough, San Mateo, etc. I think the argument about the decreasing property values is more germane when a property is much closer to the ROW. I would imagine that once the corridor is grade separated should increase property values since there will be less noise from the loud horns, like the ones from UP trains at 2 a.m. and electric trains are much quieter than the current diesel ones. Also, having greater access to quick, reliable transit to job centers tends to increase property values as well.
Tom Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:19 pm
Sure, 200 trains a day will really enhance the value of property next to a rail line.
How many people live next to the runway at SFO?
Is having transit access to the booming job center of downtown LA going to help
property values in Northern Cal?
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:41 pm
I want to see Zillow listings. I want to see comps for the town and then the whole county. Current ones not comparing prices in 2010 to ones at the peak of the housing bubble. Unless your kitchen window looks out on the tracks being close to the train makes property more valuable. It means you can put things like “walk to train” into the real estate ad. People pay premium prices for property that close to the station. Being close to the station implies being close to the railroad.
mara Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:45 pm
Do you mean “walk to train” or “walk to tracks several stories above your head, then get in car and drive for miles to get to a station”?
Joey Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:57 pm
Actually CalTrain stations are spaced at as little as 1.5 miles in some places, with about two miles being pretty standard. Granted, that (1 mile) is not exactly walking distance, but it’s not “driving for miles” either. And given how flat most of the peninsula is, biking is a good alternative too…
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 9:43 pm
None of the tracks are going to be several stories above anyone’s head. Most of them will be at grade. FUD is much more effective if you don’t exagerate. We’re still waiting for comparables.
joe romo Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 9:40 am
They can already put “walk to train” in the ad. They already have access to quick, reliable transit.
Right now, HSR brings more uncertainty to the market than benefit. I’m not saying that won’t change and even out, I’m not saying there won’t be benefits. I not saying it won’t improve communities overall. But right now, if you live next to or very near the existing ROW on the Peninsula and need to sell your home it’s not a good thing. There are people who are being irreparably harmed by it.
I’ve been watching Peninsula real estate long enough to know that there are plenty of really smart people with lots of money who would be all over something that has a lot of upside potential. But I’ve seen lots of places along the corridor languishing on the market for much longer than homes a few blocks away–and with more price reductions. I’m sorry you guys are so broke because I’d like to see you put some money where your mouths are. Since nobody else is snapping up these awesome opportunities, either you’re wrong, or you’re way smarter than all the people out there who do have money and they just haven’t thought of this yet.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 9:45 am
But right now, if you live next to or very near the existing ROW on the Peninsula and need to sell your home it’s not a good thing. There are people who are being irreparably harmed by it.
That’s a risk they took when they bought the cheap house near the tracks.
joe romo Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:18 am
Fine. So you don’t disagree that people are being harmed. You just don’t care.
Peter Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:24 am
No, he’s simply saying that people need to take responsibility for their own actions. There was no guarantee that the active railroad would not change in character. They bought a house next to an active railroad. HSR has been in the works for well over a decade now. They should have done the research. Sue the real estate agent if they did not disclose the HSR plans.
If they bought the house at the same price that people were paying nearby for houses NOT right next to a loud, smelly, diesel railroad, then that’s their problem.
Bianca Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:33 am
Housing prices all over the country have tumbled. Are there people near the Peninsula ROW that are underwater on their house? I think that’s not very likely. The norm, for most of the country, is that there is some volatility in housing prices. The Bay Area experienced a teeny bit of volatility lite after the sub-prime housing crisis hit, relative to other parts of the country. Credit has tightened up and it is harder to qualify for a mortgage. Across the Bay Area it is more of a buyer’s market than it has been in a very long time. There are lots of reasons why home prices on the Peninsula have softened a bit. It’s not that we don’t care that people are being harmed, it’s just a lot more widespread than you might want to think and it’s important to remember that volatility in house prices is actually the norm, not the exception. It’s a really tough thing for people to tie up most of their assets in one thing and have it lose value. Millions of Americans are in that boat. What I don’t have a lot of sympathy for it trying to pin the blame on the one project that is going to save Peninsula home values over the long term.
Peter Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 9:56 am
We’re not broke, we just can’t afford the astronomical prices of PAMPA.
Bianca Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:12 am
But I’ve seen lots of places along the corridor languishing on the market for much longer than homes a few blocks away–and with more price reductions.
I’ve been watching Peninsula real estate too. I think you have some confirmation bias going on here. I can tell you about plenty of houses nowhere near the tracks that have been languishing on the market for a good long time too. Just because a house near the tracks isn’t selling quickly doesn’t necessarily mean the uncertainty of HSR coming is to blame. Without reading the inspection report and understanding what is going on with the house you just don’t know- there are lots of reasons houses don’t sell as fast as the seller would like. Structural issues, mold, bad layout, unfortunate decorating choices (I’ve seen purple kitchens!) not to mention that sellers everywhere always believe their house is worth more than the market does- that phenomenon is universal. All of a sudden though, it’s somehow the fault of High Speed Rail.
joe romo Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:51 am
Could be confirmation bias. And the reason I ignored all the pleas for data and comps is because of the incredible difficulty of doing the real analysis right and accounting for the things you’ve mentioned.
It also could be that people are truly freaked out by HSR and don’t want to take a chance that things could go downhill and/or they’d have to put put with construction for years. There’s anecdotal evidence to support this.
And then there are purple kitchens which are a real wild care. Some people love purple after all.
joe romo Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:51 am
wild card
Peter Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:58 am
So can we agree that there are unknowns in terms of the long-term effects of HSR, but it is equally unknown whether HSR is having any current short-term effects on housing prices?
joe romo Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 11:19 am
I can agree that it’s unknown. Would you agree that it’s possibly affecting prices negatively?
Peter Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 11:27 am
Everthing is possible, so yes.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
And the reason I ignored all the pleas for data and comps is because of the incredible difficulty of doing the real analysis right and accounting for the things you’ve mentioned.
So it’s incredibly difficult to do but you have faith that HSR is affecting prices. I think that the lousy economy is affecting bloated prices. It could be that since all those houses are in a Mediterrrian climate people are afraid that they’ll be evicted when the Lizard People from Omricron Gamma take arrive.
Spokker Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:25 pm
The worst that is going to happen to anyone is that they’ll have to move somewhere else. Many of the people who will be affected on the Peninsula aren’t the poorest of the poor, and they’ll be okay.
adirondacker12800 Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:43 pm
potentially suffer a disproportionate share of the negative consequences.
What are the negative consequences? Faster trains aren’t negative. Quieter trains aren’t nagative. Electric trains aren’t negative. Higher property values because you are close to a fast quiet electric train aren’t negative.
Travis D Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 4:22 pm
So should we make San Jose smaller or the others bigger?
Check out the new stations in China for a truly overwhelming train station. The new Guangzhou and the SE Beijing ones in particular.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Yeah, and how empty are they?
Nathanael Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 4:54 pm
Hey, if it’s smaller than the typical airport mega-terminal, it seems reasonable.
You don’t want your train station to get overcrowded. One or two delayed trains or some shuttered airlines and it already happens in most train stations in the world.
Obviously, it isn’t worth spending vast quantities of money, but if you’ve got the space, building the building larger to accomodate additional waiting room space is an excellent idea even if you *usually* don’t need it.
Your castle is the center of the universe.
wu ming Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 11:27 am
use the blue reply button!
Dan Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 4:02 pm
Better yet, this blog could allow someone to delete / edit their posts after posting …. it would eliminate a bunch of unintended replys and god-knows-how-many typos.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 4:04 pm
No, he knows how to use the reply button. He just doesn’t…
I doubt you will post this but, here goes….
RC’s statement that there were not “pitched battles” over things like hydroelectric dams, bridges, freeways, aqueducts, and our education system is sheer nonsense. The date range given: 1930-1960 seem arbitrary to me and beside the point so I will ignore. It would be almost true to say that every public project of any significance ever built in California has been been fraught with conflict and controversy. Even with only a cursory knowledge of California’s water history one should be aware of Owens Valley, Hetch Hetchy, every piece of the SWP/CVP–all of which involved significant controversy, lawsuits, the pitting of private vs. public interests, and, in the case of Owens Valley, sabotage as most schoolchildren could tell you. It would probably be true to suggest that most freeway construction projects have faces opposition as well (see Freeway Revolt, San Francisco or Freeway Revolt, Los Angeles for examples). RC is either woefully ignorant of California history or purposefully providing a revisionist version for his own purposes. In either case, to suggest that public opinion has been somehow magically and uniformly in favor of “progress” i.e. large public projects for all time until HSR was proposed for the Peninsula is nothing less than astonishing.
In harking back to a past where everyone knew and agreed on what constituted the “public good” and worked together with smiling faces to accomplish it, RC paints a compelling picture of how we could roll up our sleeves to meet our manifest destiny: a glorious and shining future. But this vision is based on the lie of a past that never existed.
Robert Cruickshank Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:19 pm
The date range isn’t arbitrary – that was the era of the big projects that built California. Yes, there was a pitched battle over Hetch Hetchy – in the 1910s. The other ones, however, generally weren’t accompanied by this level of controversy. Shasta Dam, Golden Gate Bridge, CVP, SWP all had debate, sure, especially about the funding, but there was also widespread agreement it was necessary. What was absent was this “omg infrastructure will destroy our community” – with the exception of the SF freeway revolt and the fight over the Century Freeway in LA.
As someone trained in the study of California history, I can say with confidence that this is no lie. California’s current prosperity is the product of the infrastructure projects I described, which were built mostly free of the kind of controversy we see today.
joe romo Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 6:36 pm
How do you define widespread agreement? Remember that 6 million people voted against HSR. You’ve repeatedly characterized opponents as a small minority but are you now saying that we don’t have widespread agreement? I mean, you can’t have it both ways.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 6:42 pm
Where did anyone argue there was widespread agreement about building HSR?
Tony D. Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 6:44 pm
JM,
Most of those “6 million” don’t live anywhere near where HSR will serve (i.e., Redding, Eureka, Susanville, etc.). A large (I mean large) majority in the Bay Area, especially Peninsula, did vote FOR HSR.
joe romo Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:14 pm
The GGB is not an example I’d really like to use but your reading of history that it was “largely free of the kind of controversy we see today” seems awfully far off to me. Reading the saga of the GGB sounds, in many ways, almost exactly like the kind of controversy we see today. The project took over two dozen years from proposal to completion and faced widespread opposition on numerous grounds including the finances of the project, overall cost, safety aesthetics, impacts to land values, concern about changing land use patterns, and more. There were lawsuits and vehement letters to the editors as well as probably fistfights and barroom brawls. It’s true that much of the struggle had to do with funding but much did not. And all this for a project which was not going through any neighborhoods!
In the end, the supporters of the bridge have, I think, been vindicated by history. But the work of art that today spans the Gate is as good as it is not in spite of the controversy, but because of it. I believe the project was better designed, better executed, and better funded due to the spotlight its detractors put on it.
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:22 pm
And what makes think that HSR will not be “better designed, better executed, and better funded due to the spotlight its detractors put on it”?
That’s the whole idea of CEQA, is it not?
joe romo Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 6:40 am
I do think HSR will be better because of it. Which is why I’m not running around whining about how people are just selfish and too stupid to understand what’s good for them and pretending like I really care about all the other people in the state and how smart and altruistic me and all my friends are.
RC is twisting history to fit his interpretation that opposition to big public projects is somehow new and unique. The end of the GGB story is that many people ultimately got on board because they saw it as a jobs engine during a Depression. And so many people were for it for selfish reasons. And does anyone really care why they were for it? Not really. And people here should drop the moralistic stuff and admit that they don’t really care why people are for HSR either–as long as you’re for it. Doesn’t really matter if you’re Siemens and you want it because it’s good for your shareholders or if you want it because it might mean a job for you or your brother-in-law, or if you want it because your home value might go up or because it’s green and will save the state and help a lot of people. So if it doesn’t matter why you’re for it, then it shouldn’t matter why you’re against it. Just remember that next time you read some holier than thou crap on this board about “selfish nimbys”.
Spokker Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Public or private, some people are going to fuck it up for the rest of us. Whether it’s the Big Dig public works fiasco, or BP’s rigs exploding, there’s going to be hiccups associated with any large project. As a high speed rail supporter, I do think people will be investigated if this thing is ever built. Hell, people still might be arrested even if it’s never built. Connecting SF-LA will still be a net benefit for this awful state, in my Internet opinion.
Why do you keep deleting my comments and not providing a reason or even indicating that you’ve suppressed something as your policy says you do? I’ve read your posted policy and am in compliance. I don’t begrudge you the right to have whatever comments you want appear on your blog–but you should at least be honest about it. If this blog is only for boosters of HSR and Morris Brown so you can kick him around then why not just say so instead of hiding behind a fake policy?
Peter Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Comments from new posters get held in moderation. It’s not necessarily a matter of them being deleted, but that Robert may not be able to immediately clear them to be posted.
Robert Cruickshank Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 5:13 pm
No need for paranoia, dude. As Peter said, new posters have their comments held for moderation. I don’t always get to it immediately.
Joey Reply:
May 3rd, 2010 at 7:05 pm
Maybe a note about the delay should be added to the comments policy page (or something)…
As I stated on another blog earlier today, this is the key point:
“Instead the divide is between those who seek greater public investment in building the elements of 21st century prosperity – including but not limited to high speed rail – and those who refuse to see such investment as necessary or desirable and come up with reason after reason why we shouldn’t do it.”
Along with manufacturing, infrastructure is one of the things that put the U.S. on top with respect to economic growth. I really don’t understand why we forget this history lesson. We need to modernize our infrastructure to continue our relative prosperity. This includes re-building our aging bridges and water systems, but also realizing that we have to account for changing mixes in energy resources.
I’ve read suggestions that part of this is a generational shift. Someone on the other blog suggested that the baby boomer generation took the good public universities, the good transportation, and the good water systems from the prior generation and failed to maintain them and failed to leave a legacy to the younger generations. I’m don’t necessarily disagree, but I’m not sure if playing the blame game is helpful. It’s worth noting that my generation seems to be less inclined to step up, less inclined to be engaged, less inclined to vote, and as a result less inclined to care about these issues. But it’s also my generation who will have to grow our economy to fulfill the boomers’ pensions and healthcare. We’re going to have to wake up at some point to change the status quo.
On a side note, with respect to manufacturing, we’re never going to bring factories for making cheap goods back to the U.S. But we should make better investments in education and innovation in order to make sure we can export high-quality/high-tech goods and services (examples: microchips and oil drilling expertise). It’s possible that other countries will catch up with our abilities here, but we’re setting ourselves up to be behind by not even trying. Even when American companies manufacture items abroad, a lot of the ingenuity behind those products, for example design or software, come from here, and we need to make sure that we keep our skills up to snuff. Those world-leading universities are important, and we only seem to be cutting funding for them.
How come you’re not taking the train? Do you really fly on airplanes? Or are you waiting for HSR before you get on a train?
Joey Reply:
May 4th, 2010 at 10:20 pm
If I am not mistaken, there has been no rail service in Monterey since 1971. And as I recall, Robert has used the Coast Starlight to travel to places like Seattle on multiple occasions.