Another Look at Spain’s HSR Success
Today’s New York Times offers a closer look at Spain’s HSR success, with a reporter filing her story from the AVE:
Two years ago, nearly 90 percent of the six million people traveling between Madrid and Barcelona went by air. But early this year the number of train travelers on the route surpassed fliers. The trajectory is ever upward.
The shift has political and economic benefits for Spain, which like other European Union countries has set out to lower its carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent over 10 years. Analysts say that such emissions per passenger on a high-speed train are about one-fourth of those generated by flying or driving.
But AVE’s passengers are not necessarily thinking green. Like high-speed railroads in France and China, Renfe — Spain’s national train operator — also has performed the ultimate green sleight of hand simply by making the low-emissions option more comfortable and convenient.
“Since the day this train opened, I have never, never set foot on the plane again,” said Mr. Martínez, 31, a lawyer who travels between Madrid and Barcelona twice a week. “Why would anyone fly?”
In other words, people in Spain really like taking the train even over other previously popular options. That’s even though Spain chose a different approach than France when setting its HSR fares:
But unlike the French, who sought to maintain a low-cost image as their trains gained speed, Renfe decided to go upscale, said Josep Valls, a professor of marketing at the Esade Business School in Barcelona.
AVE tickets cost as much as plane tickets — from about €120 to €200 one way, or $160 to $300, though cheaper advance fares can be found. The train offers assigned reclining seats, computer outlets, movies, headsets, good food, even gloved attendants…
Spain’s high-speed train sector seems well positioned to expand. All AVE lines turn a profit and have easily survived price wars waged by airlines, Mr. Valls said. What is more, trains require fewer employees and far less costly infrastructure than do planes.
What’s even more remarkable about this is that the AVE is maintaining these ridership levels, and generating operating surpluses as a result (something I really wish the NYT article had mentioned), despite Spain being one of the hardest-hit countries in the Eurozone by the recession. Only Greece and Ireland appear to have taken a bigger hit than Spain, which had a big property bubble that burst, leaving nearly 20% of the country unemployed. The fact that the AVE maintains its ridership and profitability during the recession is testament to the resilience and popularity of high speed passenger rail.
Of course, it’s not the only way to price HSR service. As DoDo’s Puente AVE post from a year ago today showed us, France’s decision to emphasize ridership over revenue in the first years of the TGV 30 years ago paid off both in terms of generating riders and long-term financial support for the system. We’re nearly 10 years away from making final decisions about fares for California HSR, but both France and Spain offer different, compelling models to study.
I’m sure that the NYT article about the success of the AVE will bring out those who claim that Europe is more suited to passenger rail, that it has different attitudes about travel – in short, that Spain isn’t California. This is as good a time as any to recall Matt Melzer’s excellent post comparing Spain and California from July 2008, and showing just where demand for the initial, wildly successful AVE line from Madrid to Sevilla came from. Melzer offered the following charts:

Notice the population density: almost exactly the same. What’s not noted here: distance between Madrid and Barcelona (386 mi/621 km) is similar to the distance between SF and LA (432 mi/695 km). The geography is very similar as well.

Notice the traffic coming from automobiles and induced demand. HSR deniers like to argue such “induced demand” does not exist, but the AVE indicates it does, both in 1992 when the first line opened and more recently, in 2008 when the Madrid-Barcelona line was finished.

This not only shows that HSR quickly became the dominant mode of transportation on the Madrid-Sevilla route, but that it happened on a route where conventional passenger trains had only a small fraction of the share before the opening of the HSR line.
Now that I think about it, there are a few members of the state legislature who could stand to read both the NYT article and Melzer’s original post, charts included…

Quoting Wikipedia “The high speed link combined with high property prices in Madrid has encouraged many Madrid commuters to settle in Ciudad Real, the first stop on the Madrid-Seville line”. The distance between Madrid and Ciudad Real is 100 miles. The distance between San Jose and Merced is 125 miles. The distance between Los Angeles and Bakersfield is 106 miles. The AVE train does about 160 mph, a little slower than our CAHSR so travel times would be about equal. Property values have crashed in the Central Valley and all of the valley cities have become very affordable. Live where its cheap, work where the jobs are—- This is exactly what countless thousands of californians will do once HSR is operational.
wu ming Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 5:07 am
a decade ago, i’d have laughed at your comparison – who in their right mind would move from san jose to merced? or from LA to bak-o? – but after watching the recent population growth in tracy and palmdale/lancaster, i think it’s quite probably that’s exactly what’ll happen. hope the building codes are a lot more energy and water efficient in that future boom, so we don’t inadvertently end up creating a huge water and electricity suck in the south valley.
José Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 9:27 am
The distance betwwen Madrid and Ciudad Real is not 100 miles. They use km over there. Can’t you do the same?
Bobierto Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 11:13 am
Oh fer pete’s sake, of all the things posted on this blog to get upset about! I routinely tell my European clients that the distance from Los Angeles to San Diego is about 200 km. Are you telling me that the distance from LA to SD is NOT 200 km because we’re in America? I have to tell them it’s 120 miles even though they may not be familiar with that unit of measurement, is that correct?
Victor Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 11:55 am
Yeah José, It’s just a matter of converting one type of measurement to another, We like Miles as that is what We here in the USA are comfortable with and so If someone says the Distance is 100 miles, It’s 100 miles, Not 100 Km…
John Burrows Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 8:11 pm
I stand corrected. The distance from Madrid to Ciudad Real is 159 km or 99 miles.
elfling Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 9:34 am
People have already been doing that. Palmdale has been that way for 20 years, and if you ride Amtrak California’s San Joaquin, you’ll come across passengers commuting to their jobs in SF from their homes in Fresno.
jimsf Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
elfing-this is true.
So here’s what I always wonder about these comparisons between Spain and California (and I honestly just don’t know the answer): sure the density is similar, but the development patterns have got to be pretty different, right? For example, we seem to have a 10,000-kilometer advantage in highways, which seems like a potential indication of a more diffuse (and thus less well suited to train travel) population.
Assuming development patterns really are different between Spain and California, how is that thought to affect our project?
lyqwyd Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 10:17 am
The population densities of Spain within the cities are definitely different, Barcelona is about 2.5 times as dense as San Francisco, and Madrid is about twice as dense as LA (at least by my calculation, but I could be wrong). But on the other hand LA metro area has about twice the total population of Madrid’s, and there are other factors, such as Spain having a more radial population distribution, while in California it is much more along a linear corridor. I don’t really know exactly how it will affect ridership, but although ours will probably be somewhat lower, I don’t think it will be significantly so.
I just think proper rail infrastructure stimulates commerce. Any environmental effects are secondary.
I’m a capitalist first, and a dirty, hippy liberal second.
wu ming Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 5:03 am
false choice. the economy, especially in a water-intensive, disaster-prone state as california, with huge agricultural, tourism and new tech/venture capital sectors, is dependent upon and strongly influenced by the environment. global warming and pollution are clear and present dangers to the state’s near future, so the goal should be to try to grow commerce in a manner that creates a virtuous cycle and not a vicious one.
and quite frankly, the state’s economy is hosed unless we can reduce our state infrastructure’s exposure to oil price fluctuations.
Spokker Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 12:09 pm
Then you’ll want to build local transit first, not HSR, since the majority of vehicle miles are spent on our three hour long commutes to work. You’ll also not want to encourage people to live 100 miles from work, even if they are taking an electric train. Why not move to a loft down the street from work and use your own two feet to propel your ass into the office?
No, I have visions of businessmen making deals on the train while on their way to meetings. I have visions of tourists getting around the state, visiting San Francisco and Disneyland in the same vacation, spending all their cash.
All that travel makes me wet.
elfling Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 9:35 am
Heh.
And as long as the “cultural” argument is mention, check this: http://psystenance.com/2010/03/15/the-fundamental-attribution-error-in-transportation-choice/
wu ming Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 5:11 am
that’s generally been my experience living abroad, as well as one summer in berkeley. when the options exist, i use ‘em.
The notion that Californians are welded to their cars and planes is simply wrong. Californians use cars because for most of them, it is the best option and the rational choice. Give them a better (e.g. cheaper/faster/more comfortable) option, and they will switch.
I’ve been watching the show House Hunters International, which regularly features Californians seeking a house somewhere in the Caribbean. I couldn’t help but notice how often they choose house that’s within walking distance of amenities “because then we won’t have to drive everywhere”.
Victor Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
I agree, Where I live the only public transit available is dial-a-ride and that meanders all over the area before arriving at ones destination, So for Food and some other things, A Car is simply a necessity, If I could go from Yermo to Barstow via rail(Good Luck on that) and only have to walk less than 50′ from the station to the park here(The thought of lugging 8-12 bags isn’t encouraging either as I only shop once a month at most due to when I get My income every month(unless I forget something)), Not on an SSI/SSP(I’m a Disabled Person, So walking is difficult, My neighbor uses a wheelchair for anything over 8′-10′, She has an Chevy S-10 pickup, I have a Ford Escort zx2) income that is at $845 a month currently and that may go down to $830 cause of the Republican(Libertarian) conspired deficit in the Legislature(aided by an Amateur Governor and now We have 2 more Amateurs running to replace Him)… Further cuts beyond $830 though are impossible due to court decisions and Federal Law.
It is excellent that Spain has pricing power. It will be a bit more difficult in California until gas prices rise to similar $4.50/gal levels.
mike Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 11:11 am
Uh, that’s what they were just two years ago. Even now, following the deepest recession since the Great Depression with no recovery in sight, gas at the stations where I live (SF Peninsula) is around $3.20.
Peter Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
And how much longer before gas is back at $4.50/gal again? Maybe two years?
Spokker Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Gas is deprecated. Switch to electricity generated by renewables and hamsters.
In France, car culture was born of necessity. The regions with the lowest average income have the highest car ownership. Why? It is the consequence of France’s regionalisation. Each region now has to fund its own infrastructure and, as a result, public transit has deteriorated in the more sparsely populated zones. It’s a vicious circle. Less transit breeds more cars which breeds even less transit.
That’s how “car culture” set foot in France. Then came the shopping malls, built in the middle of nowhere, which killed the local shops and made the car even more necessary. We now unfortunately have the highest concentration of malls in Europe. As a result, many small French towns have lost their soul. No parking, no business.
The local café used to be the centre of social life, with no age or social barriers. There really was life in it. Now people drive to the mall’s impersonal cafeteria, surrounded by people they don’t know and will never see again.
Seeing how difficult it would be to change this tendency in France where it is relatively recent, I wonder whether it is even imaginable in the US where it is far more deeply ingrained.
Maxi Reply:
March 17th, 2010 at 1:54 am
Do you regret neglecting regional and local transit in favor of the LGVs?
Andre Peretti Reply:
March 17th, 2010 at 5:39 am
I’m a fan of the TGV, but to your question I answer: yes. When I see abandoned tracks covered with weeds, and tunnels rented to mushroom growers, it breaks my heart.
When the regions found themselves in charge of infrastructure previously owned by the state, they made choices and the money went where the votes are: big cities. This has increased geographical inequalities. When every adult needs a car, it’s a big drain on a family’s budget.
This aspect of life in France is totally ignored by tourists who marvel at how easy it is to get around in Paris without a car.
This is your best post to date. The information you provide is simple enough for most voters to understand and makes the case for CAHSR.
This is the type of information I’d like to see in California newspapers.
Opinion: Kopp: Opponents of high-speed rail don’t understand the law
Peter Reply:
March 16th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
Why would a judge have a better understanding of the law than the general public? Oh, wait…
Link glitch in initial post -
Matt Melzer article (posted 31 July 2008)