I didn’t think Prop 1A was going to pass in the first place.

More passing tracks, yes, but “quad tracking nearly the entire route” does not necessarily follow. It may very well be that an electrified, grade-separated, two-track Caltrain with a few more passing tracks can handle the extra load, where HSR passenger “load” is anyone’s guess at this point in time.

And, lyqwyd, I think you underestimate the cost of eminent domain takings on the peninsula when you consider the fair market value of the property plus the legal costs and associated delays of all the litigation. I don’t know that, all told, it would run into the billions but it would not be insignificant. And as I said above, a transfer in San Jose will deter some people from riding HSR. Whether that number is significant or not, no one knows.

A differing or otherwise inconvenient fare structure would definitely discourage ridership, but offering a shared or combined fare when purchasing an HSR ticket should be the least of the challenges facing this project (depending upon the bureaucracies to be penetrated, of course). Regards,

Mark D.

Are you saying that ridership will not take a hit if people are forced to transfer?

People can transfer from Caltrain to BART and get far closer to the SF job center, but very few people do, because transferring sucks and people don’t like it.

Yes, Caltrain should be electrified and grade separated, but what none of you seems to have acknowledged above is that doing so, without running CAHSR up the peninsula, will require far less in the way of (or no) eminent domain takings, based on two fewer tracks and the land required to support them (and hence the billions in savings I mentioned earlier). Having CAHSR terminate in San Jose, with frequent, electrified, grade-separated Caltrain service taking passengers further north, and with connection times averaging less than, say, thirty minutes, is, to me, the most likely way to get this thing built through Pacheco, even if it needs to go before voters again (which, according to many of you, should be a slam dunk). Well, this assumes some way is found to get HSR built around the UP ROW south of San Jose, too. Regards,

Mark D.

Electrify the line and HSR can go all the way to San Francisco without transfers. Lets just say that means 4 HSR trains at peak in addition to the current 6 Caltrain trains. Ten trains an hour need more passing tracks along the line. Ten trains an hour tie up the grade crossings more often. So they begin to grade separate things. Electrification and grade separations mean Caltrain attracts more riders because it’s faster and more comfortable than diesel hauled trains. Which means the grade crossings are closed more often. Also means the passing tracks are more frequent or longer or both. Eventually they end up with a four track fully grade separated ROW.

Electrify last means that there are more diesel trains rumbling through the grade crossings more slowly than electric trains. Which means the grade crossings get separated just like in the above scenario. More grade separations mean Caltrain is faster, attracts more riders. More and longer passing tracks. Which attracts more Caltrain riders because it’s faster. More riders means more diesel fumes. Which results in demands for electrification. Electric trains are faster and more comfortable which attracts more riders. More passing tracks. Eventually they end up with a four track fully grade separated ROW.

Building four track fully grade separated ROW for HSR now is different how?